Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng
Dennis Ng wrote:2 Jan 2011
below are my comments on what the "4 financial experts said" and below my comments is the article "4 financial experts' forecast for this year" published in Sunday Times 2 Jan 2011.
My comments:
as I always said, analyts' No. 1 objective is to keep their jobs. You can see that they seem to "agree with one another", becos if your views are not too different from other analyts, when your forecast turns out to be wrong, you will still keep your job.
Most of them also play "safe" by suggesting that people buy Blue Chip stocks. Frankly, most of the blue chips are already trading at PE of 15 or higher, there is not much upside potential left.
I said Suntec REIT is worth buying 1 year ago when share price was S$1. Now then analysts suggest you to buy Suntec REIT when price is S$1.50. Are they kinda late?
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
"4 financial experts' forecast for this year"
On Friday, the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 3,190.04.
That would be welcome in many countries but local traders have been a little spoiled of late.
For full-time investor Isaac Chin, 61, his fortunes have been tracking STI rises in the past two years.
Mr Chin is fully invested in real estate investment trusts (Reits) and DBS preference shares.
'CapitaMall Trust and Suntec Reit remain my favourite picks for this year. They are retail/office plays and Suntec Reit has just acquired a stake in Marina Bay Financial Centre Phase One,' he said.
Mr Chin also believes the STI can reach 3,500 to 3,700 by the middle of this year.
Despite the volatility in these markets, Singapore's economy clocked up growth of 14.7 per cent last year with expansion of 4 to 6 per cent tipped for this year.
The Sunday Times polled four financial experts on their market outlook.
MS JANICE CHUA
Head of DBS Vickers Research, Singapore
Our stock picks are Indofood Agri with a target price of $3.20, SembCorp Marine at $5.48, Keppel Corp at $12.20 and Cosco Corp at $2.35.
The trend for strong visitor arrivals should continue into this year, driven by new attractions at Universal Studios in Sentosa, the gear-up to host larger conferences and meetings, the opening of Gardens by the Bay and the International Cruise Terminal.
Hospitality-related stocks should continue to deliver strong earnings and our picks are Genting Singapore with a target price of $2.70, SIA at $18.50, UOL at $5.23 and CDL Hospitality Trusts at $2.28.
MR TERENCE WONG
Executive director at DMG & Partners Research
Q: What are the sector/stock picks for 2011?
Our stock picks include CDL Hospitality Trusts at a target price of $2.51 as Singapore sees record tourism numbers.
Occupancy is very tight at about 92 per cent, which should result in average room rates heading north.
We also like FJ Benjamin, with the target price at 52 cents, as we believe that strong visitor arrivals coupled with the solid job market should boost retailers.
Domestic consumer sentiment is also on the rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia which are FJ Benjamin's key markets.
Other stock picks are Sino Grandness at 56 cents, as it is enjoying strong earnings growth driven by domestic beverage sales and is expanding its distribution network in China; Ezion at $1 and First Resources at $2.05.
MS CARMEN LEE
OCBC Investment Research's head of research
Q: What are the sector/stock picks for 2011?
Our key stock picks are Ascott Residence Trust at a target price of $1.38, Biosensors at $1.35, CapitaLand at $4.54, DBS at $16, Ezra at $2.27, Genting at $2.53, Hyflux at $3.66, Keppel Corp at $12.50, Mapletree Logistics Trust at $1, Noble at $2.59, Olam at $3.53, Pacific Andes Resources at 40 cents, Sembcorp Marine at $5.70, StarHub at $3.02, UOB at $19.70, UOL at $5.42 and Venture Corp at $12.10.
Q: What's your tip?
We advocate investing in quality stocks in the right sectors with good track record, management teams and good order flow.
We prefer to stick with blue chips, in particular, blue chip laggards last year such as DBS, UOB, CapitaLand, Noble and SGX.
MS TAN MIN LAN
Strategist at UBS Investment Research
As a result, Singapore Reits would benefit the most while firms with US dollar or euro revenue and assets in developed markets should feel the drag of a stronger Singapore dollar, specifically tech firms such as ST Engineering, Wilmar and Hyflux.
Q: What are the sector/stock picks for 2011?
We like Overseas Union Enterprise at a target price of $4.28 for its significant exposure to prime office space and hotels, and Indofood Agri at $3.70, as it is well positioned to benefit from rising cash flow, improving profitability, lower gearing and potential for dividend payouts following the completion of its major capital expenditure cycle.
Other stock picks are Keppel Land at $5.08, Keppel Corp at $11.10, SembCorp Industries at $5.68, OCBC at $11.30, Sats at $3.40, Noble at $2.70 and DBS at $16.60.
Dennis Ng wrote:Dennis Ng wrote:1 Feb 2012
I have a hunch that this company is the next in the SI chips. Their Financial Controller just resigned....luckily, I sold this off above 40 cents and made a quick exit without incurring any loss.
I decided not to buy any China stocks listed in Singapore in the near future. Because too many went into trouble.
Currently, the china stocks listed in Singapore I still hold are China Aviation Oil and Yanzhijiang.
12 Feb 2012
it is unfortunate but my "hunch" seems to be correct. I hope my sharing have helped some forumers avoided losing money in China Milk...
China Milk was halted for trading for 4 days and today (12 Feb 2010) finally made some announcement and the shares have been suspended from trading:
Extracted from ChinaMilk's announcement this afternoon:
"The Independent Directors have further noted that the Management of the Company could not now give an unequivocal confirmation as to whether, when and how the Company will be meeting its payment obligations under the Convertible Bonds when the earlier impressions given to the Board was that the Company is in a position to do so save for some procedural matters. This fortifies the Audit Committee's resolve to approach the Management's representations on the Company's financial position with more caution to ensure that the Q3 Financial Results when announced are not inaccurate or misleading in any way."
Retropbz wrote:Hi Dennis SIFU,
Sharing and giving are the best things in this world which I learning from you. I am sure that to help others is also to help yourself to a better and happier life when they benefit from you.
Wonderful Day to Everyone
dragonhart2 wrote:dear Dennis,
i hope u understand that this is a numbers game too.
Out 1000 pple who attend "Path to Financial freedom workshop"...how many sign up for the 3 paid seminar....100, 200??
Out of the 100 who sign up, how many will visit this forum?...50?
Out of this 50, how many are willing to go in the water?...got sharks bo? Stock market very risky leh...many pple lost $$$$...it is gambling...may as well go Casino, more shiok?
How many actually believe wholeheartedly what u teach is really the path to financial freedom?
i didn't post this to discourage u, there are lot of pple out there who simply refuse to help themselves.....i post this as reminder for us to have a realistic expectations.....
We can only help those pple who take the first step to forward,willing to give their life a shot. Anyone who stretches his hand, we will surely pull him along...we want to help as many pple as possible............ i am sure u will continue to conduct the free "Path to Financial freedom workshop"...
we do our best to teach.....we don't give up teaching, but the onus is on the student to practise and apply what's taught.
No skills can be imparted if the student refuses to practise and apply.....it is no fault on the teacher....
When the student is ready, the teacher appears......Actually, the teacher is here all this while, just that student wasn't ready to learn....he must be awakened!![]()
since i graduated 1 year ago, i have been warning pple around me about the impending crisis...nobody actually believe until the tsunami came...i told them "Don't buy this stock and that stock...."....one of my colleague bot 4 lots of Wilmar at $4.88 after he saw it came down from S6.50++.....he even recommended it to me after buying....straight away i told him, this stock is downtrend....but i can't make the decision for him to sell.....well....he just cut loss at $3.55...about $5000 losss....that's his 1 month's pay!.....another colleague bot 5 lots of Olam at $2.14...dropped to 2.08, he ask me to wack.....again i warned to cut, it's a downtrend stock.....he is still holding it....$1.65 now...mind...he has got 15 years experience trading the market!
cheers,
jason.Dennis Ng wrote:Hi dragonhart2,
yes, you can be assured that I'm here daily to guide and share with seminar graduates on your Path to Financial Freedom.
I have taught, it is then up to seminar graduates to try to "digest" what is being taught, to apply what is being taught, and to ask any questions which they might have in this forum. If people don't ask questions, I won't know what they don't know.
And of course, as you might have experienced, the more you share, the more you learned, it is something that anyone who share in the forum will experience. So for seminar graduates who are still just doing passive reading, I really encourage more seminar graduates to come forward to share.
Becos only when you share, then I can help correct any misconceptions that you might have, which you might not realise at all.
The more you share, the more you learn, the less you share, the less you learn.
Nothing gives me more satisfaction to witness the growth in knowledge/experience of seminar graduates. I can assure everyone that I will do my utmost to help all seminar graduates in their learning Journey, but they need to "swallow the water" (similar to learning swimming) or "fall down from the bike' (similar to learning how to cycle) themselves, I cannot swallow the water for you, I cannot fall off the bicylce for you...
WM wrote:Hi Dennis,
Thank you very much for continuing to share your knowledge even though you have been told by your sifu that this might be a waste of time.
I like your star fish story very much & would like to share how much I have benefited from attending your seminar & reading your daily posting.
I have read financial investing books 15years back when I was still in college & release the power of compounding interest. I was thinking that by saving 20-30% of my income and invest with the interest of 10-15% p.a. I would be financial ok when approaching retirement.
However, my journey of investing was disappointing. In good time, I can earn 20-40% from unit trust but everything was wiped off during market crash. My financial advisor told me it is unavoidable. I’ve also burned by oilpod, caught in stock market etc. My wife has almost decided to give up in investing & prepare to put our savings in the bank.
When I read your 1st book, I was so happy & grateful that someone is actually teaching people how to reach financial freedom, in a simple to understand way. Moreover, your teaching is very comprehensive as it also covers how to plan for insurance. At that time, I was so disappointed with some agents who keep proposing expensive policies that I have stopped reviewing my policies for more than 7 years.
Learning from your teaching gives hopes & new life to our family. I have revised my insurance coverage & I know that one day I will reach financial freedom if I continue to learn & invest wisely. I fully support your Goal to help 1 million people reach S$1 million, & to continue helping the poor for a better loving society.
Dennis, I sincerely appreciate your teaching & guidance. Please continue to share your knowledge & view as it really makes lots of difference to me, my family & the society. I am one of the starfish that desperately need a helping hand to rescue. I believed many graduates feel the same, but mostly are silent reader.
Cheers…
Wee Meng
AndrewNg wrote:Hi Everyone
Look like Robert Kiyosaki is in town promoting his book and event through NLB.
http://golibrary.nlb.gov.sg/Programmes/ ... osaki.aspx
Wonder how many people will be misguided especially for people who attend simply because it is organized by NLB and there is trust that NLB will promote good and quality educational event.
regards
Andrew
Dennis Ng wrote:25 Apr 2012
Genting Singapore borrow money now even though they are NOT using the money now and have to pay 5.125% interest while waiting.
Genting Singapore is building up Opportunity Fund, this is a Secret of the Rich, all Rich knows the Wisdom of doing so, but it baffles many small shareholders of Genting Singapore, wondering why the company is paying interests on money it does NOT need.
Genting Singapore has S$1 billion net profits and S$3.15 billion debt, even if it pays 6% on its debts, that works out to S$189 million, and its Interest Cover is 6.29 times. So there is really no need to worry about whether Genting Singapore can pay interests on its debts or not.
As I shared many times in my seminars, the average wants to pay off debts, the Rich Borrow money to become Richer.
Until you grasp this truth and follow to do what the Rich do, you would NOT become very rich, as we all have limited financial resources.
Mr Lim also expressed confidence that with the cash in hand, the company could capitalise on any opportunities that may arise. 'I can sleep soundly at night, knowing that with the cash we have, we will definitely be able to earn more than the 5.125 per cent which is the interest cost we pay for this sum of money,' he said.
One shareholder wanted to know why Genting is raising so much money when it had no acquisition target in mind, and yet was paying hefty interest on the funds.
Genting president Tan Hee Teck said: 'They want to see the colour of your money. Let's say hypothetically I want to build an IR (integrated resort) in Japan, the first thing the Japanese government is going to ask you - I say in Hokkien - would be 'Oo lui boh?' (Got money or not?). You can't say that I will raise some money down the road.'
Cheers!
Dennis Ng
The Straits Times
Apr 25, 2012
companies
Shareholders air concerns at Genting AGM
Firm allays fears about its ability to pay interest on $2.3b fund-raising effort
By Goh Eng Yeow
ANXIOUS shareholders of casino giant Genting Singapore yesterday expressed fears over the firm's ability to service the huge interest payments resulting from a recent $2.3 billion fund-raising exercise.
The move dominated questions from the hundreds of shareholders who turned up at the firm's annual general meeting (AGM) held in the luxurious ballroom in Genting's flagship Resorts World Sentosa.
The firm sold a bond-like instrument known as perpetual shares to raise the funds. It is paying a hefty annual payout or coupon of 5.125 per cent.
One after another, shareholders stood up to voice their concerns at the meeting, which lasted for two hours.
One elderly shareholder asked company chairman Lim Kok Thay if Genting would be deferring any payout on the perpetual securities - which give the issuer discretion over repayment of the principal and the ability to defer coupon payments under certain circumstances.
Another shareholder asked if the company's decision to pay out a measly one-cent dividend was to make the perpetual bonds attractive to buyers, since it offered a much higher payout rate in percentage terms than the shares.
But Mr Lim took pains to allay their fears. He said: 'Your board and management are highly confident we can honour all our obligations. Please don't start talking about defaults. We are not a fly-by-night company. In a short span of time, we have grown tremendously. You can see you are the owner of every single brick in this resort.'
He noted that Genting had been given high ratings by credit ratings agencies. 'We have the best credit ratings of any gaming companies in the world, and that includes whatever the American operators can come up with. They are rated as junk. We are investment grade. I can assure you. Please sleep well at night.'
The perpetual securities had been a 'rare win-win situation' for both the company and the investors who bought them. 'It is very rare for both sides to win. We give them very good interest - 5.125 per cent - compared with bank interest which is below 1 per cent,' he said.
In the financial year ended Dec 31 last year, Genting had reported a net profit of $1 billion, revenues of $3.2 billion and borrowings of about $3.15 billion. It is one of Singapore's largest listed firms with a market value of $21 billion and more than 94,000 shareholders.
Mr Lim also expressed confidence that with the cash in hand, the company could capitalise on any opportunities that may arise. 'I can sleep soundly at night, knowing that with the cash we have, we will definitely be able to earn more than the 5.125 per cent which is the interest cost we pay for this sum of money,' he said.
One shareholder wanted to know why Genting is raising so much money when it had no acquisition target in mind, and yet was paying hefty interest on the funds.
Genting president Tan Hee Teck said: 'They want to see the colour of your money. Let's say hypothetically I want to build an IR (integrated resort) in Japan, the first thing the Japanese government is going to ask you - I say in Hokkien - would be 'Oo lui boh?' (Got money or not?). You can't say that I will raise some money down the road.'
A shareholder, who called himself Mr Toh, complained about the proposed one-cent dividend payout. He used a Hokkien expression to suggest that the company must be thinking that one cent is bigger than a bullock-cart wheel.
But Mr Lim noted that there was nothing shameful about the one-cent dividend. 'That one-cent dividend works out to $120 million of your money - $120 million is what this company is paying out as dividend. I am sure if you are embarrassed about it, there will be some charity bodies which will be quite happy to receive your one-cent payout,' he said.
After the meeting ended, each shareholder was given a lunch box to take away.
engyeow@sph.com.sg
danielcheng wrote:True.
A bit too tricky for me. Not analytical nor hardworking enough to play in the current market. Seems to be a 50/50 chance of making using whatever As(FA/TA/CSA) as a non trader.
Should be a great time for traders tho'. There is always a good reason to buy and excuse to sell either long or short.
learner wrote:
wa... did not realise there is a summary here! Thanks Bryan for doing this up (-:
Just a slight correction and slight elaboration on one part which is quoted above about my own view (my views are always fallible hor) on "Between FA & TA, which approach is best?" My view is that ultimately what is best is the approach that suits one's character & personality & to a lesser extent, objective. In the case of a person who is very uncomfortable with Technical Analysis even after having some knowledge about TA, then for that person, the best approach may be FA. For another person who does not like to look at financial statements despite having some knowledge about FA, then for that person, the best approach may be TA. In the case of someone who is comfortable to use both TA & FA, then the best approach will be to use FA to determine what to short-sell or what to buy-long, and to use TA to determine when to open the short/long positions and when to close them. Regarding objectives: if the periodical dividends are sufficiently important for a person (i.e. getting relatively high dividends is among his objectives0, then that person cannot avoid doing FA (whether or not he uses TA). If a person has little or no concern with dividends but his objective is on the capital gains, then he can rely only on TA if his personality (e.g. too lazy) is such that he does not like to do FA. But for those who are happy to use both, then using both FA & TA would be the best for them.
Investor (in accordance to the way I define an investor) ought to use both FA & TA, whereas a trader (in accordance to the way I defined it) can use both FA & TA together, or can use only TA.
Thanks again Bryan for doing the summary.
yip khiong
Return to Financial Principles
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests