Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

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danielcheng
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by danielcheng »

Actually all these minor local measures will only help kerb price increase here and there.

As the following major events had not happened, i.e. Economic crisis, increase in interest rate, poor business environment, job loss, influx of TOP Condos, EC, DBSS, BTOs coming into mkt etc.. property price will still creep up gradually or stablise during this late bull market. It will be a boring phase for short/mid(<5yrs) term investors.

But..when -ve events happens, it will happen suddenly, come in a series of waves or a combination of events(perfect storm) causing a rapid and sharp fall in price. This signals the start of the bear market, give it at least 6-9mths to give you an indication if it is time to re-enter the market then.
Last edited by danielcheng on Fri Jul 13, 2012 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
racoon12
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by racoon12 »

Hi Daniel

Dennis had mentioned that this may be the coldest winter in 80 years...would that also had a possibility of the property price dip downward duration will last longer as well? or will it dip deeper?

If the Resi price dip...high chance the commercial price (industrial, shop, retail, etc) will dip too right?

Many thanks
danielcheng
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by danielcheng »

Hi racoon12,

Yes, as the patient had been on life support and not allowed to die after the 2008 crisis, the signs had became very clear to all that things are bad. But as you can see, governments around the world are obsessed with not letting things fail or at least not under their watch, it is about if i die, you also die. So they are even more unwilling to let the patient go this round. Their theory is...being artificially alive is better than naturally dead! Maybe, there will be a miracle..

If things can be temporary solved by printing money, then it is a lazy & easy thing to do. So once "print until cannot print, save until cannot save, drag until cannot drag, than everyone die standing lor!".

Other than timing, location for property purchase, i believe holding power is also very important as the next Bear market might be a long one if the government allows a "natural healing" process. A rapid recovery can also happen too if government decides to use "unnatural healing" methods..again.

Yes, generally commercial property price will also fall in tandem with resi should market plunge as it is a macro environment and sentiment issue.
racoon12
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by racoon12 »

Thank U :D
Dennis Ng
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by Dennis Ng »

12 Jul 2012 - Buyers expect property prices in S'pore to continue rising: survey

of course, if you want to buy property, only reason must be you expect prices to continue to rise, otherwise, you would NOT be a buyer! Therefore, it is Silly to ask buyers what their views on property market outlook.

Anyone wants to analyse property market needs to focus on Demand and Supply. Demand likely to go down if 2013/14 is hit by Global Financial Crisis. Another thing to note is Singapore population has NOT increased since year 2011, but from 2006 to 2010 increased by 800,000....2013/14 also unlikely to see any increase in population due to unhappiness about government letting too many foreigners into Singapore. Last 5 years property prices increase why? Already clear becos of the huge increase in population in the 5 years 2006 to 2010...isn't it clear? Supply could NOT keep up with demand, therefore prices have NOWHERE to go, but up. That's why I bought investment property in 2010 (prices now went up 15%, or if you buy now, you buy 15% more expensive than me).

While huge supply will be hitting the market, total of 53,000 units of new HDB flats to be completed in 2014/14/15...currently, inventory condos launched but not sold is about 37,000 (we have not even factored those not launched and not sold). Today, you read about developers requesting for extension to sell properties more than 2 years after TOP...what does it show, more and more developers expect more and more of their condos to remain unsold, what does it imply?

Common sense is not common, eg. to focus on analysing Demand and Supply of property to arrive at View on Property Market outlook.

If you ask people why they think property prices would continue to rise, they probably cannot give you very good data or reason to support their view, it is "just a feeling".

Other things people need to consider before buying property now are:
1. what if rental falls by up to 30%, can you afford to pay the Housing Loan instalments?
2. what if interest rates go up from current 1% to 3%, can you afford to pay the Increased Housing Loan instalment?
3. what if you lose your income due to accident, sickness, retrenchment, can you afford to pay the Housing Loan instalment?

If your answer to above 3 questions are Yes and if you still think property prices would continue to increase, then sure, just put your money where your mouth is and suffer the losses or enjoy the gains which comes with that decision. Frankly, with sellers' stamp duty, even if property price increase in next 2 years, after deducting sellers' stamp duty of 16% for selling in 1st year an 12% for selling in 2nd year, you have little or no profits/gains to show afterall.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Buyers expect property prices in S'pore to continue rising: survey
By Wong Siew Ying | Posted: 12 July 2012 1651 hrs

SINGAPORE: Credit Suisse said its recent survey found that majority of the respondents expect property prices in Singapore to continue to rise and more cooling measures to come.

According to its inaugural proprietary housing survey, six in 10 home buyers believe that there'll be more cooling measures, with 40 per cent of them expecting measures to be introduced in the next 12 months.

Credit Suisse noted that buyers are most sensitive to capital gains tax and stamp duties.

Of the 300 people polled, 53 per cent of them said that their buying decision will be influenced by government measures.

About 47 per cent of the respondents also expect property prices and rentals to rise.

Credit Suisse said the survey also found that about 30 per cent of home buyers purchased a property for investments while the rest are genuine buyers who bought a property for own occupation or for their family members.

In particular, about six in 10 buyers said they would not buy a shoebox apartment.

Shoebox apartments have been popular with home buyers in the last couple of years and have helped to drive up new homes sales as they are seen to be more affordable.

By the looks of the survey findings, Credit Suisse expects home sales in the primary market to moderate "to more normalised levels" after the record sales volumes in the first four months of this year.

According to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority, over 10,600 units of new private homes have been sold from January to May 2012.

The survey showed that just 21 per cent of the respondents are considering buying a residential property over the next 12 months, while 40 per cent of them said there are no plans to buy a property anytime soon.


Still, Credit Suisse said 76 per cent of households are able to afford a property fairly as liquidity remains strong.

It noted that 47 per cent of the respondents do not have an existing mortgage, while another 46 per cent have only one mortgage.

The survey also revealed that 30 per cent of households have over S$100,000 in cash, which could easily form the downpayment for the purchase of a property.

The Credit Suisse proprietary housing survey polled 300 respondents, 89 per cent of them are Singapore citizens, 10 per cent are permanent residents and the rest are foreigners.

- CNA/fa
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by Dennis Ng »

Published on Jul 14, 2012
Another two mass market condos ready for launch

By ALVIN LIM

TWO condominiums targeted at the mass market are ready for the starting gun.

More than 1,000 units in total will be on offer at the projects - one in Punggol and the other in Upper Changi - giving home seekers even more choice in an already saturated market.

Sporty types can first limber up for today's launch of Parc Olympia in Upper Changi.

The 99-year leasehold development at Flora Drive will have 486 units and cover more than 300,000 sq ft, with about 60,000 sq ft devoted to sports.

The amenities will include a synthetic jogging track, rock climbing wall, air-conditioned badminton court, Olympic-sized swimming pool, aqua gym and skate park.

National table tennis star Feng Tianwei and badminton players Shinta Mulia Sari and Yao Lei will make appearances at the launch of the condo today.

Parc Olympia, which is being developed by the Koh Brothers Group, will comprise 52 one-bedroom units, 212 two-bedders, 169 three-bedroom units and 53 four- bedders in eight blocks. Apartment sizes range from 495 sq ft to 2,702 sq ft.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by Dennis Ng »

Home sales down...main properties selling are "mass market properties" bought by mainly middle class Singaporeans for home stay or First time investing into properties. Experienced property investors I know have STOPPED buying properties since Jan 2011 becos of the limited upside potential (maximum gain of 10%) and higher downside risks (10% to 30%)...

If you want to buy condo, no hurry, there will still be alot of New projects to be launched in 2nd half of year 2012...and with more and more units offered for sale, I'm not sure if the demand and "take up rate" can continue to be high.

In my opinion, we have reached the tail end of Bull market in Property in Singapore (and many other countries in the world), if and when Global Financial Crisis hits us, market sentiment can change overnight. This is lesson I learned from the Asian Financial Crisis when I lost half of my wealth in the stock market crash....and I always tell myself:" to make mistake is human, to make the same mistake twice is inhuman." So I always caution myself for repeating the mistake I made in 1997/98.

P.S. year 2012 should see property prices holding steady or slightly up, but things can change drastically when Global Financial Crisis hits us...if I tell you I know the exact timing of the next Crisis, then I am a conman, since only God knows the answer.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Published on Jul 17, 2012
Mass market moving amid fall in private home sales

By Amanda Tan

SUBURBAN condominium launches dominated new private home sales last month although activity was down overall.

There were 1,111 new mass-market units moved out of 1,371 total sales, excluding executive condos, said the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday.

But last month's sales total was a 19.5 per cent drop from the 1,704 units sold in May ? a showing experts blamed on fewer launches and the June school holidays rather than weakened buying interest.

Last month's suburban sales were driven mainly by the launches of Tropika East in Eunos, Sea Esta in Pasir Ris and Punggol's River Isles.

The developers of these three condos moved more than half of the 920 units they released in total, noted Dr Chua Yang Liang, Jones Lang LaSalle's regional research head.

There were also sales at older launches like Flamingo Valley and Seahill.

The activity around the three new condos failed to offset the overall slump, leaving suburban sector sales 8 per cent below May's level.

High-end homes in the core central region posted second-best results, with 141 units moved and was the only region to record higher sales last month than in May.

This was due mainly to 1919 at Mount Sophia, which sold 74 out of 75 units at a median price of $2,042 per sq ft (psf).

City fringe flats fared the worst, with just 119 sold, well down from 362 in May.

The URA numbers overall tell a story of slow decline. The 1,704 new home sales in May was 32 per cent down on April's 2,497 units.

The last time sharply was in December after more cooling measures. Sales then plunged over 60 per cent to 632 from November's 1,702. But last month's showing did not surprise property consultants, who noted that just 1,303 units were launched, down 47 per cent from May.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
racoon12
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by racoon12 »

SOS message:

Hi All
"This forum will discontinue unless 30 participate to Give" http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... =16&t=2690

please support by doing 3 charity work: and report in on the above forum :D :)

1. do a donation
2. tell them about this forum information able to enlightened them on crisis preparation
3. teach kids or children to be good by sharing what they have on their hands
4. Tell them about positive debts & negative debt difference
yhendra
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by yhendra »

Hi Alvin,

Thank you for your ever-ready attitude in sharing to others!!
This is the spirit that Dennis had kept telling us: "The more you share, the more you learn... Give and you shall receive..."

I happened to be in his seminar, the Stock Seminar, on 21st/22nd July 2012 at Suntec City, with other 'trainers', Serene Loong, Adrian Chua, Jimmy.
It was our 'revision' to learn more from him in order for us to replace him conducting the seminar in future.
So that he can do some other strategic planning to reach out to more people.
We recorded the seminar for our learning. However, it happened to be his last seminar.

Just for sharing to everybody part of the first hour of the seminar. When I re-watched the video again the day after his wake.

I compiled the video and you can watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzK998SXgx0

Coincident or not that we recorded the seminar just before his departure,
I hope everybody now knows that he REALLY is SERIOUS about sharing and teaching to more people.

...
alvin wrote:Dear fellow graduates, it is heartening to see most us want the forum to continue.
Yew Kin has decided the monthly mentoring sessions will continue.
I will be conducting the next session on 13 Aug 12, Mon.
More details will be released soon.
Keep in touch!
Cheers!
Hendra
Like to share and give opinions.
However, please do your own homework!
You have been given the tools and the knowledge, try to fish yourself, so you will never be hungry again....
---
RTW (Ride The Wave) http://www.facebook.com/RTWLearningLab
lootster
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by lootster »

Thanks yhendra! So comforting to see Dennis again at his last seminar.....
ktchin
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Singapore to Curb 'Shoebox' Housing Projects in Suburban Are

Post by ktchin »

Singapore to Curb 'Shoebox' Housing Projects in Suburban Areas

SINGAPORE--The Singapore government on Tuesday issued new guidelines
to curb the development of small "shoebox" apartments in the
city-state's suburban areas, as part of efforts to temper exuberance
in the local property market.

The new guidelines, which take effect Nov. 4, will cap the total
number of "shoebox" apartments that can be built in non-landed
private-residential projects outside of Singapore's central area, the
Urban Redevelopment Authority said in a statement.

So-called "shoebox" apartments have floor areas of 500 square feet or
less. The authority said the new guidelines are meant to encourage
developers to provide homes of various sizes that better cater to
varying needs of Singapore residents.

"Increasingly we are seeing some new housing developments consisting
predominantly of shoebox units--as high as 50% to 80%," the authority
said. It projects that Singapore will have about 11,000 completed
shoebox apartments by the end of 2015, up from about 2,400 such units
at the end of last year.

"The situation that we should avoid is for shoebox units to form a
disproportionately large portion of the housing stock in Singapore,"
the authority said, adding that "a large concentration of such
developments can strain the local road infrastructure."


Write to Chun Han Wong at chunhan.wong@dowjones.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires


Maintaining a good variety of housing sizes

From 4 November 2012, the total number of dwelling units that can be
built on a development site for non-landed private residential
developments outside the Central Area will be capped, when new
guidelines issued by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) take
effect.

The new guidelines will discourage new developments consisting
predominantly of “shoebox” units outside the Central Area, but at the
same time give flexibility to developers to offer a range of homes of
different sizes to cater to the needs of various demographic groups
and lifestyles.

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2012/pr12-98.html
candy_chia
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by candy_chia »

Resale HDB flat prices hit peak
Sep 20, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg

Prices of resale HDB flats reached a record high in Q2 2012 amid a 19 percent quarter-on-quarter increase in transaction volumes, reported Singapore Business Review.

From just 5,900 in the first quarter, transaction volumes grew to 7,000 in Q2, pushing the resale price index up 1.3 percent to 194.0.

The report noted that resale prices and transaction volumes increased despite the availability of 12,700 Build-to-Order (BTO) flats and 3,800 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) released in the first half of this year.

The healthy numbers indicate a strong demand for resale flats, especially among those who aren’t eligible for BTO units or require immediate occupation.

Moreover, resale flat supply will remain tight until new BTO flats are completed and become available in the resale market after their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP).
candy_chia
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by candy_chia »

More cooling measures not likely anytime soon
Oct 2, 2012 - PropertyGuru.com.sg
By Romesh Navaratnarajah:

The government is unlikely to impose new cooling measures in the immediate term, taking into consideration the current economic conditions and the effectiveness of the previous policies, according to Png Poh Soon, Head of Research at Knight Frank Singapore.

His comments come after the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released its flash estimates for Q3 2012 which shows that private home prices increased 0.5 percent on a quarterly basis, the highest rate of increase this year.

“The government would have to monitor and calibrate any new measures carefully in the context of weakening economic outlook,” noted Png.

He added that the last few rounds of cooling measures, including the ABSD (additional buyer’s stamp duty) have been successful in curbing overseas buying interest, reflected in the lower number of foreign buyers across all residential segments.

Speculators have also been kept out of the market and investors hold properties for a longer period, as indicated by the LOWER SUB-SALE Transaction Volumes.

Meanwhile, there are fresh concerns that the US government’s third round of quantitative easing (QE3) is likely to drive a fresh wave of overseas capital into Singapore’s property market.

However, Png feels that foreign demand is expected to be well-capped by the ABSD, which imposes higher transaction costs on non-Singaporean home buyers.
candy_chia
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by candy_chia »

Singapore Caps Residential Loan Tenures After Prices Hit Record
Bloomberg, By Pooja Thakur and Sanat Vallikappen - Oct 6, 2012 12:01 AM GMT+0800

Singapore will restrict home-loan maturities in a bid to curb a housing bubble after property prices in the island-state rose to a record last quarter amid low interest rates.

The Maximum Tenure for New Residential property loans will be capped at 35 years, The Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

It will also impose tighter loan-to-value limits for loans exceeding 30 years, it said. The rules, which will become effective Oct. 6, will apply to both private properties and Housing Development Board flats.

This can be seen as another round of property curbs,” Nicholas Mak, Singapore-based executive director at SLP International Property Consultants, said in a phone interview. “The government is taking preventive measures. It’s trying to reduce the amount of credit to investors. With interest rates expected to remain low, it could encourage more risky investments.”

The government has been trying to rein in residential property prices since 2009. It has barred interest-only loans for some housing projects, stopped allowing developers to absorb interest payments, imposed additional taxes on foreigners and companies buying properties, and moved to curb the increasing trend of so-called shoebox apartments.

Banks in Singapore have been offering home loans with tenures of as long as 40 years, with United Overseas Bank Ltd. even extending a 50-year loan. Priyia Paramajothi, a Singapore- based spokeswoman at UOB, Southeast Asia’s third-largest lender, declined to comment on MAS’s statement yesterday.

Credit Growth

Low interest rates are likely to persist for some time and will continue to spur demand in the residential property market, pushing up prices beyond sustainable levels, the central bank said in the statement.

“The new rules aim to curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth,” the island-state’s central bank said in the statement. “The eventual correction could be painful to borrowers and destabilize the economy.”

The three-month Singapore interbank offered rate, or Sibor, the benchmark used to price most home loans, is at an all-time low at just under 0.4 percent, compared with a peak 3.56 percent in 2006, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Over the past three years, the average tenure for new residential property loans has increased from 25 years to 29 years, the central bank said. More than 45 percent of new home loans had durations that exceeded 30 years, it said.

“We are already aligned with the new regulations on home loan tenures,” Sherry Leong, head of home financial services at Citibank Singapore Ltd., said. “Most of our customers take loan tenures of 30 years although we have granted loan tenures up to 35 years.”

Shoebox Apartments

In September, Singapore said it would cap the number of homes that can be developed in suburban projects to curb the increasing trend of what have been dubbed shoebox apartments, or apartments smaller than 50 square meters (538 square feet).

The island-state in December imposed an additional 10 percent stamp duty on foreigners and corporate entities. The extra levy is 3 percent for permanent residents purchasing a second home and for citizens buying their third residential property.

The government earlier imposed a 1 percent duty on the first S$180,000 ($147,000) of the property price, 2 percent on the next S$180,000 and 3 percent for the remainder.

Singapore home prices climbed to a record in the third quarter after developers sold more homes. The island-state’s private residential property price index rose 0.5 percent to 208 points in the three months ended Sept. 30, according to preliminary estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Oct. 1. The index advanced 0.4 percent in the previous quarter, which was also at a record.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-0 ... rties.html
URA Property Price Index of Residential Properties.png
URA Property Price Index of Residential Properties.png (101.71 KiB) Viewed 20291 times
candy_chia
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Re: Singapore Government Announced Property Cooling Measures

Post by candy_chia »

Government caps tenure of residential loans at 35 years
By Daryl Chin, The Straits Times, Published on Oct 05, 2012

IN a bold move to avoid a property bubble, the Government has capped all new loans for residential properties at 35 years, starting tomorrow.

In a statement released on Friday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore also said loans exceeding 30 years will face a tighter loan-to-value limits.

Homeowners can only borrow 40 per cent of the property's valuation should they have an outstanding mortgage, and 60 per cent if they do not.

This rule also applies to those whose loan period extends beyond the retirement age of 65.

Explaining the move, MAS said this was part of the Government's broader aim of Avoiding a Price Bubble and fostering long term stability in the property market.

"The new rules aim to curb continued upward pressure on residential property prices, driven by low interest rates and rapid credit growth. Previous rounds of Government measures have had a moderating effect on residential property prices," it said.

Flash estimates in both the private and public resale market have reached record highs.

Property demand is likely to continue given low interest rates, which will spur prices beyond "sustainable levels".

"The eventual correction could be painful to borrowers and destabilise the economy," it said.

Meanwhile, the agency has also sat up and taken note of some worrying trends. Financial institutions like banks have been lengthening their tenures -some as long as 50 years - for residential properties.

Over the last three years, the average tenure for new residential property loans has increased from 25 to 29 years. More than 45 per cent of new residential property loans exceed 30 years.

"Long tenure loans pose risks to both lenders and borrowers. The lower initial monthly repayments, made possible by long loan tenures and the current low interest rates, may lead borrowers to over-estimate their ability to service the loans, and take a bigger loan than they can really afford."
-----------------------------
Latest changes to mortgage rules may deter older investors
By Daryl Chin, The Straits Times, Published on Oct 06, 2012

The latest changes to mortgage rules could deter many house-hunters from buying a new property - or at least give them serious pause.

Chief among this group will be older investors looking to buy a second or third investment property, they noted. And HDB upgraders who want to get on the private property ladder will also not be spared.

Background Stories:
~~ If they have NO Outstanding mortgage, the CASH DOWN PAYMENT is now 40 per cent of the property's valuation instead of the usual 20 per cent.

~~~ If they already have an EXISTING mortgage and want to take another one for another property, the cash down payment is 60 per cent, instead of the current 40 per cent.
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