Sale of Condos started to slow down...

This discussion thread is for forum members to discuss and learn and share with one another on anything related to the Property Market.

Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng

Postby equilat » Fri Jul 22, 2011 12:48 pm

Dennis Ng wrote:
But always remember to ask ourselves:"what if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?" I always ask myself this.



I used to ask myself this question too in the past and have regretted making decisions based purely on financial consideration. My question now is to ask myself, what if I do not make the decision, will i live to regret. You have only one life and its a short one. Pls be reminded that my risk apetitie is huge compared to most people.
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Postby Stradlinz » Fri Jul 22, 2011 3:10 pm

I'd like to highlight 1 very important driver in our ppty mkt other than supply/demand thingy.. It's Sentiment.. Our mkt are more sentiment-driven than supply/demand driven..

While it's true that supply/demand played a big part, when sentiment turns.. supply/demand equation no longer important. As we always call it the market is never efficient.. Be it stock or property mkt..

In late 2008 during Lehman crisis, we witness sentiment turns 180deg.. In mid 2007 everybody was buying like no tomorrow and some ppty keep on breaking record prices, suddenly in just over a year nobody wants to buy.. Is the economics of supply/demand changed from 2007 and 2008? I guess not much changes .. However it's the bearish sentiment that makes the demand diminished suddenly..

I have NO DOUBT that SG ppty prices will be higher than current prices in long term say 10 yrs from now.. However we have to bear in mind sentiment can change overnight regardless of supply/demand equation
Regards,
William Liong
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Postby TieGe » Fri Jul 22, 2011 4:08 pm

For those who of who are first time home owner, be very carefully and never to rush into buying. We can buy a wrong note book it is ok but if you over-paid a house which cost hundred of thousands you would be a slave to the bank.

I believe first time home owners like to buy from the developers. For me, it is easier to make money buying from the resales market.

And as a matter of fact, the number of transaction had dropped alot. Hence the demand is also slowing down.

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Postby Dennis Ng » Fri Jul 22, 2011 10:08 pm

equilat wrote:
Dennis Ng wrote:
But always remember to ask ourselves:"what if I'm wrong, will I be financially ok?" I always ask myself this.



I used to ask myself this question too in the past and have regretted making decisions based purely on financial consideration. My question now is to ask myself, what if I do not make the decision, will i live to regret. You have only one life and its a short one. Pls be reminded that my risk apetitie is huge compared to most people.


it's ok to have different opinion, just put your money where your mouth is.

I've said everything I want to say already, don't want to repeat myself.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Postby Dennis Ng » Sun Jul 24, 2011 5:24 pm

TieGe wrote:
Dennis Ng wrote:And when most analysts were very pessimistic and said they don't know how long the economy would recover back in March 2009, I hinted clearly it is time to be Positive, to buy stocks, that after Winter (bear market) comes Spring (Bull Market).

No kidding.

Read this article which I wrote: http://www.asiaone.com/Business/My+Mone ... 32023.html


Dennis,
Wish I read this article in 2009.

Be greedy when others are fearful. On a scale of 1 to 10. 1 is market is most fearful and 10 is market is most greedy...

What number you could give to the market now?


Tie Ge


Hi Tie Ge,
actually there is still quite a lot of fear in the stock market currently, I will say currently probably we are probably at 3. For Singapore property market, I think we are probably at 9 or 10. :shock:
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Postby Starfire » Sun Jul 24, 2011 6:10 pm

Yes I agree with Dennis as i personally know of a few people who are still looking around to buy pvt property.
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Postby Dennis Ng » Sun Jul 24, 2011 7:04 pm

Starfire wrote:Yes I agree with Dennis as i personally know of a few people who are still looking around to buy pvt property.


Hi Starfire,
yup, and these people are probably chanting to themselves:"property prices can only go up, cannot come down..."
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Postby woonty » Mon Jul 25, 2011 2:39 pm

equilat wrote:To each his own views. We do not need to agree. Its always good to have diversity in views. Time will tell whether Woonty is correct to say that property might go up 50% before correcting, and for now i tend to agree with him that the real demand is still there. until I see demand diminishing will my view change else property prices gonna go up no matter what comes. Its pure demand vs supply economics, my fren. Btw, as we talk, the thomson grand has already pushed up prices in thomson by another 10% within a month.


Bro equilat

Don't be agitated over difference in views, do give due respect to Dennis as the owner of the forum with his mission to educate & not challenge his views with the market “alternative views” which may confuse his student .

Before anyone quote me when the market finally correct/crash (which I believe too), I better qualify himself, I had those view since late 2009 even after the stock & property market start going up from Mar 2009…

I was not able to buy another private property due to the restriction of MOP of my BTO which I've bought it fortunately quite a bargain at $166K+ in 2003 (SARS period if I remember correctly) which later TOP in 2006 & recently transacted between $450K-$500K, up close to 200%. No intention of selling my HDB or upgrading (opportunity cost) so that I can rent out or trade my private property.

Anyway have since diverted by investment capital to co-invest into commercial project in Singapore hence no intention of buying any residential property now & in the near future maybe when the next recession finally comes.

Make my first $m via stocks, not trying to impress anyone here because I don’t earn a single cents doing it & don’t have high aspiration to inspire yet, haha

One thing I agree with Dennis is always keep in mind “what if you’re wrong” will you be totally wiped out (especially if you're leveraged)

We learn from each other

Regards
:D
woonty
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Postby jfoo2 » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:11 pm

HI Woonty,

You are the first $m I know beside Dennis in this forum...hope you can share more how you made it via stocks to inspire us. Btw are you in your 30s or 40s?

:D
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Postby Stradlinz » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:22 pm

Agree with woonty.. I hope nobody take offence or have hard feelings when we have different views.. To stress again, we definitely do not purposely oppose one's view for nothing. There has to be a strong conviction to our belief and views when we do so.. Combined with hard data and research..

Actually this opposing views in the forum also good for us. It will train us to absorb different views, do our own research and come to our own conclusion.. Even until today, whenever someone say or write something, I will do my own research and come to my own conclusion. This is true even when reading Dennis' posting (hope sifu Dennis won't get offended haha)..
Regards,
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Postby Dennis Ng » Mon Jul 25, 2011 3:30 pm

Stradlinz wrote:Agree with woonty.. I hope nobody take offence or have hard feelings when we have different views.. To stress again, we definitely do not purposely oppose one's view for nothing. There has to be a strong conviction to our belief and views when we do so.. Combined with hard data and research..

Actually this opposing views in the forum also good for us. It will train us to absorb different views, do our own research and come to our own conclusion.. Even until today, whenever someone say or write something, I will do my own research and come to my own conclusion. This is true even when reading Dennis' posting (hope sifu Dennis won't get offended haha)..


A discussion forum is supposed to draw out different views and opinions. Just that anyone expressing a view or opinion should substantiate with supporting facts and information and cannot be I think price will go up 50%, why? I just have a feeling...this won't don.

I already mentioned in a few postings that do NOT blindly listen to anyone, be it Peter Schiff, George Soros, Jim Rogers, Warren Buffett, Dr Tony Tan or Dennis Ng. We need to learn to think independently and arrive at our own conclusion.

My sifus and I have just sold all 3 units of Normanton Park, which we bought in year 2008 for possibility of en-bloc...we think the likelihood for en-bloc for Normanton park in the current property market cycle is very slim and thus have decided to sell and realised over 100% gains, as prices have moved up by 30% to 40% above our purchase price.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Postby woonty » Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:26 pm

jfoo2 wrote:HI Woonty,

You are the first $m I know beside Dennis in this forum...hope you can share more how you made it via stocks to inspire us. Btw are you in your 30s or 40s?

:D


Hi jfoo2

No lar, there could be more just that Singaporean are typically low profile

I’m in my 30s, there is really no secrets…

It is a long & boring process & need perseverance & fine-tuning along the way to find vehicle that suits you

You need to have the hunger to succeed & more importantly the reason why?

If not, you will end up feeling emptiness even when you have reached your $1’m or end up on a bigger treadmill running like a hamster going for $2’m… then $5’m… $10’m & the sad truth is you will still worry about not having enough compare to others in your league (your mindset)

Before I start… many years ago

I get my insurance in order first ( H&S + Group Term ) including my love ones eg. parents & wife
Save my initial capital fast by earning more (benchmark with the top in our industry) spending less than average or the poor if you are extremist
How fast we earn also depend on if we’re an employee, self-employed or business-owner with the leverage & scalability
Have an open-mind to learning but be skeptical about newspaper advertisement claims this “so & so” trade & make $10,000/trade

Mine is not important (you have to find what you understand & interests you)
Mine is concentrated bets in instrument that I understand eg. stocks in a few international stocks picked based on macro themes around the world (no Futures & FOREX for me)
I don’t spread my limited investment capital into many instrument(s) but I do diversify into Cash, Shares & Land-banking (already got back my investment last month :P

Fertiliser stocks in 2007 up 300%
Long Gold @$600 & trade Silver since 2007
Uranium stocks during the oil crisis hitting $140

Co-invested as a minor shareholders in commercial project

For those just graduated from school, it is best to settle down fast & grab your 1st HDB entitlement before you exceed your combined income ceiling

But then it is also an opportunity cost of 8 years (3 years BTO + 5 years MOP) so you have to make your own decision & weigh the pros & cons

Sorry the above is not in order because I type whatever come to my mind without organising

Cheers

:D
woonty
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Postby jfoo2 » Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:34 pm

Hi Woonty,

Thanks for your sharing. You are amazing.

:D
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