Prof Chan Yan Chong

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JIMMYKKL
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Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by JIMMYKKL »

Prof Chan is giving a talk on 14/8 at Suntec City in Chinese on the After of the Financial Tsunami.

He normally give 1 or 2 talks a year if he can when back to Singapore to meet his followers as he is currently working in HK.

For those interested , pls see this link - http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/seminar/?ref=web
Dennis Ng
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Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
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Re: Prof Chan Yan Chong

Post by Dennis Ng »

JIMMYKKL wrote:Prof Chan is giving a talk on 14/8 at Suntec City in Chinese on the After of the Financial Tsunami.

He normally give 1 or 2 talks a year if he can when back to Singapore to meet his followers as he is currently working in HK.

For those interested , pls see this link - http://www.sharesinv.com/zh/seminar/?ref=web
Prof Chan is one of the few speakers who I respect his views on the stock market. Unfortunately, on 14 Aug, I'll be conducting the 1-day How to Save and Accumulate One Million Dollars Seminar myself.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
JIMMYKKL
Investing Mentor
Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by JIMMYKKL »

Dr Chan latest newsletter -

Dear Friends
I did a half yearly review last month, and pointed out the market had drifted without direction. I
also pointed out that in July and August the market would rebound on corporate results. In July the
market at one stage rose to 3018 points, almost to April’s 3037 high level.
At the moment the market is repeating the March to April’s pattern, rebound on corporate results.
For the whole year the market will continue to move with no clear cut indication; some short term
plays may not be a bad idea. This year I am two times lucky to ride on top of the short term rebounds
on corporate results.
My defintion of so called short term stock selling in fact was after at least one or two months’
holding. To some people, two months’ holding means long term; short term means day to day trading.
I advocate long term investment as I make my substantial gains from long term investment.. On the
other hand I am not against short term trades, as all tricks have their own merits. In fact, stock
brokering industry would not exist without short term trades. Stock brokers cannot survive if everyone
invests long term like me. Today, the financial markets worldwide have become one super gambling
den. If you do not gamble, others will do it for you. You faithfully deposit your money in the banks, and
the banks use your money to gamble. If banks lose money and bankrupt, your deposits are gone.
Chinese like to gamble. The ratio of people playing stocks to total population in the Western
countries is far below that in the East. In time to come Singapore Stock Exchange will be one of the
most profitable public listed exchanges,
And because Chinese like to gamble, the turnover of Macau’s gambling industry far exceeds
that of US Las Vegas the gambling city. Many Macau’s casino stocks perform very good, keep
breaking new height after the financial crisis. Singapore Genting is worth for long term investment.
Chinese Premier Wen Jia Bao’s speech on stabllizing domestic and external demands
continues supporting Chinese stock markets. Shanghai’s composite stock index has risen more than
1%. US Fed president Bernanke told US Congress that US economy is now in a critical state,
fortifying investors’ belief that US double bottom recession is inevitable. However, I am more
optimistic; as long as Bernanke is aware of the impending danger, chances of its happening are
reduced.
Bernanke’s remark is another overture to stimulate economy. Earlier this year people were
afraid that US might withdraw its support from the market, but the imminent danger of a double bottom
recession lower the chances of any interest rate increase. On the contrary, US may even print more
currency notes.
Before printing more notes, US Government let the hedge funds tackle Euro to strengthen US
dollars and to boost the confidence of investors to buy up US dollars, so that the US dollars will not be
devalued when large quantity of currency notes are being printed. US government has developed a
highly sophisticated financial war game strategy.
In the 90s of the last Century, the compelled appreciation of Japanese yen has since crippled the
Japanese economy that at one stage threatened the US eoconmy. In 1997, US Government again let
the hedge funds cripple the economy of some developing Asian countries. Now before printing the
currency notes, the US is trying to hammer European countries. Many years ago the US hedge funds
and credit rating agencies were the major attacking force behind its financial war game.
In November this year US Senate and Congress will have mid term elections to elect members
and governors; I believe Bernanke will again print currency notes two or three months prior to the mid
term elections.
Of the 91 EU banks that took part in the ‘credit pressure’ test set by EU, 7 failed. The test is
designed by EU members to lift up the confidence of international investors to EU economic prospect
and Euro. During the 2008 fanancial tsunami, almost all the US banks went under; the crisis was
resolved after US Government had printed currency notes to lend the banks. No systematic designed
credit pressure test could give a financial tsunami a meaningful test.
At the moment the Chinese domestic property prices remain in a stale-mate situation. Central
Government tries to cramp down the prices, but local governments are indifferent to it. Developers are
not willing to cut down prices, and buyers are not willing to buy at high prices. How to break through
the stale-mate situation? I guess the buyers will lose their patience and buy at high prices. Once the
buyers do that, property prices will go up again. Central Government is not likely to go all out to cramp
down property prices. The higher the risk of a double bottom recession in Europe and Amercia, the
Chinese Central Government will not implement excessive macro control measures to avoid crippling
the domestic market demands.
03/08/2010
JIMMYKKL
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Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by JIMMYKKL »

© Copyright 2004. Published and Printed by ProActive Media Pte Ltd.
声明:此通讯录只供参考,我们对所蒙受的任何损失一概不负责。
曾渊沧@股友通讯录
MICA (P) 208/09/2010
2010 年11 月份
各位朋友,
股市由8 月中开始急升,两个星期前出现小调整。不少人一见调整就跟着抛售,他们认为
这么做是锁定利润,将已赚到的利润放入口袋。这样做似乎是袋袋平安,但是,问题是:当你锁定
利润,套利之后股价再突然急升,你追不追?
追的话,低价卖掉股票再高价追回,钱赚少了。不追的话,万一股价再上升怎么办?是不
是将来得以更高价追入?
这就是为什么我曾经说在大牛市中,买了好股就不要理会股价的短期波动。过早套利只能
赚粒糖,而且一定会逼你在较迟的时侯以更高价买回,得不偿失。只要你确定目前是大牛市,其间
的调整算得了什么,由它去吧!
你所需要做的是不断地看看有没有股价仍未上升的好股;去发掘好股比天天去猜明天是升
是跌好得多。
过去两个星期股价为什么会调整?因为市场传出消息说美国联储局在本月4 日公布的量化
宽松政策的规模可能没有想象中的大,再加上锁定利润的心态,股市就调整了。
实际上,本月4 日公布的量化宽松的规模大小根本不重要,如果规模小,投资者仍然会期望
将来还会再增加。
股市经过一年半的上升,现在,股市升至这个水平,便宜股不多了。航运股应该是相对依
然便宜的股,因为一直到今年第二季,航运业似乎仍未见复苏。航运股的股价也就相对大落后。
NOL 的股价仍只有2007 年高峰期的三分一。
新加坡交易所宣布收购澳洲交易所。这是蛇吞象,因为澳洲交易所的市值与规模都比新加
坡交易所大;新加坡交易所出价是每股48 澳元,这比公布收购消息前澳洲交易所的股价高出37%,
不少人认为太贵,但是,不要忘记,新加坡交易所的P/E 值比澳洲交易所的高,高P/E 的企业收购
低P/E 的企业, 将来合并后每股的盈利会比目前的新加坡交易所的盈利更高。这是因为合并后平均
P/E 下跌了。
目前,在美国狂印钞票的影响之下,资源股吃香。澳洲有大量的天然资产,是矿业股的天
堂。像必和必拓(BHP),力拓(RIO)都是闻名全球的矿业股,将来新加坡投资者可以直接买卖
这些股,合并后的新澳交易所将有900 只资源股上市。
当然,在一片歌舞升平中,警号不是没有。9 月20 日,中国人民银行宣布加息0.25%。.这
是中国经济过热,开始收紧银根的表现。不过,从过去的记录来看,第一次,第二次加息,什至连
加数次息之后,对股市的打击不但没有出现,更是越加息,股市越涨,要加很多次息,加到投资者
感到吃力,股市才会逆转。
2010 年11 月04 日
曾渊沧士个人网页 : www.ycchan.net
过去的海峡指数网页 : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/indices
如果您想在最短的时间内收到股友通讯录请将您的电子邮址寄交到 email@ycchan.net
或 20 Kramat Lane #03-01 United House Singapore 228773 Tel:67335335
© Copyright 2004. Published and Printed by ProActive Media Pte Ltd.
声明:此通讯录只供参考,我们对所蒙受的任何损失一概不负责。
Dear Friends
The stock market rose rapidly since mid August, with one minor adjustment two weeks
ago.There were people unloaded their holdings to lock in their gains. It seems make sense to do so, but the
problem is: if you have already locked in your gains, are you going to chase the market if share prices move
up sharply again?
If you chase the market, you may be buying stocks you already sold at higher prices, and if you
do not, what if the share prices rise even higher? Are you going to buy in stocks at higher prices?
That is why I said before: having bought good stocks, ignore the in-between short term stock
price fluctuations during a bull-run market. The gain you made would be negligible if you realised it too
early; and you would in future buy stocks at higher prices, dissipating what you had make earlier. Once you
are certain it is a bull-run market, the in-between market adjustments are irrelevant; let them be.
Look out for good stocks with upward potential. It is better to uncover potential good stocks than
to guess whether the market would rise or fall on the next day.
The market adjusted for the past two weeks because rumours had it that the US Federal Reserve’s
quantitative easing policy announcement on 4 currrent month would fall short of expectations. The profit
lock in sentiment also contributed to the market’s adjustment.
In fact, the size of the quantitative easing policy is not important. If it is too small, investors will
expect some more future easing exercises.
Having gone up during the past one and half years, the market is at a level where only few cheap
shares are available. Stocks relating to freight forwarding operations are relatively cheap and lagging behind,
as up to the 2nd quarter of this year, the freight forwarding industry seems yet to recover.
The price of NOL is only 1/3 of its height in 2007.
Singapore Stock Exchange has announced its intention to acquire the Australian Stock Exchange.
It is like ‘the snake tries to swallow the elephant’ because the market capitalisation of the Australian Stock
Exchange is much more than that of Singapore Stock Exchange. The price offered to Australian Stock
Exhange is A$48, 37% higher than the market price before the offer. Many people think the offer price is
too high, but do not forget the P/E of SGX is higher than the ASE. When a high P/E corporation acquires a
low P/E corporation, the profit per share of the merged entity will be higher than the present SGX share.
This is because the average P/E of the merged entity drops.
Under the US note printing influence, resource stocks are investors’ favourites. Australia has
huge natural resources and a paradise for resource stocks. Stocks like BHP and RIO are world renowned
resource stocks. In future, Singapore investors can trade these stocks. The merger will see 900 resource
stocks listed on the Exchange.
Not that there is no warning signal in the rosy horizon. On 20 September the People’s Bank of
China announced 0.25% interest rate increase, a monetary tightening move to curb the overheated economy.
From past experiences however, interest hikes had no impact on the stock markets. Only when investors find
the interest hikes are no longer bearable would the markets make a turn.
04/11/2010
----------------------------------------------
just sharing, not advising
XLTan
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:59 am

Post by XLTan »

Thanks Jimmykkl for the article, it clearly reminds me once again to have patience (something youngsters tend to lack). I was just contemplating earlier this morning whether to lock in my gains from some of my purchases made during corrections this year. Now, I'm clearly going to sit on my gains on the good counters and let the profits run.

cheers.
Dennis Ng
Site Admin
Posts: 9781
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
Location: Singapore
Contact:

Post by Dennis Ng »

XLTan wrote:Thanks Jimmykkl for the article, it clearly reminds me once again to have patience (something youngsters tend to lack). I was just contemplating earlier this morning whether to lock in my gains from some of my purchases made during corrections this year. Now, I'm clearly going to sit on my gains on the good counters and let the profits run.

cheers.
haha. You mean you didn't believe what I said so many times? That there'll be a Last Rally in Global Stock Markets which only just begun?

Just read this forum "Stock Markets, Where are we now?" and read how many times I repeated this message.

Here's the url for this discussion topic:

http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/ ... 2&start=90
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
XLTan
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:59 am

Post by XLTan »

I do believe - logically. but emotionally still get tempted to profit take once in a while. :oops:
This is where Dennis' reminders + other articles contributed here in forum comes in useful to remind myself.
Dennis Ng
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Posts: 9781
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
Location: Singapore
Contact:

Post by Dennis Ng »

XLTan wrote:I do believe - logically. but emotionally still get tempted to profit take once in a while. :oops:
This is where Dennis' reminders + other articles contributed here in forum comes in useful to remind myself.
Hi XLTan,

looks like you still cannot control your emotions, why are you taking profits when the entire market is still in an uptrend? Unless the stock you bought already deemed over-valued...otherwise, it is NOT logical to sell stocks now.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
XLTan
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 30
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:59 am

Post by XLTan »

Dennis, you are right. I have to learn to control my emotions :(
JIMMYKKL
Investing Mentor
Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by JIMMYKKL »

2011 年03 月份
各位朋友
2011 年开市两个月,股市长仓被杀个片甲不留。不少散户就是不相信股市会跌,不断入市博反弹,因为股市之跌、为什
么跌,的确无法找个合理的解释,新加坡经济发展良好, 政府在财政预算案中大派金钱, 美股气势如虹,升至两年半新高,新加
坡股市实在没有理由跌。
我认为本地股市下跌的唯一理由,就是太多人认为股市没理由下跌,导致大量炒短线的散户入市博反弹,特别是以衍生
工具博反弹,以图刀仔锯大树,但财力雄厚的大户就是不让你不信他们有能力控制大市,一沽再沽,一定要沽到散户投降、止蚀
为止。
我相信基本分析,基本因素并没有在过两个月转坏,股市的短期波幅我猜不到也就不去猜,现在最好是耐心地等业绩公
布,业绩是股价的最佳支持者。目前正值上市企业公布业绩的时期,盈利大增的企业可以使到股价显得比较便宜, PE 值大幅降
低,增加投资的吸引力。
由突尼斯引发的茉莉花革命,已一发不可收拾,席卷整个北非与中东所有的阿拉伯国家。
突尼斯总统下台后,至今仍呈乱局,埃及由军人执政,产油国利比亚已经开始失控,德国、英国的石油公司已经开始撤
走员工。换言之,油田停产了,伊朗、巴林、也门、约旦等地的民众正在示威,希望推翻政府。
中东与北非国家,可以分为石油国与非石油国,美国只关心石油国的政权谁属,北非与中东国家也可分为亲美与反美集
团,美国在自己国内人民的压力之下,会反对亲美政权武力镇压示威者,因此这些政权倒台的机会大一些,反美集团则肯定会以
武力镇压示威者,不流血不会倒台。
很多年前,利比亚狂人卡达菲公开支持回教恐怖分子,以金钱支持他们,导致突然有一天,美国战斗机出现在卡达菲官
邸上空进行轰炸,企图炸死他。不过卡达菲命大,没有死,但也从此不敢再如此狂野了,后来美国攻打伊拉克, 卡达菲怕了,
2003 年更开始与西方国家打交道,因此,今日美国与欧洲的石油公司都在利比亚开采石油。
这次的中东、北非乱局令美国很头痛,因为当地是全球石油出口最多的区域,石油价格飞升会导致百物价格一起上涨,
今日的美国正处於经济衰退末期、经济复苏初期,如果石油价格再继续飞涨,将使到美国出现经济学家所谓的滞胀。
什么是滞胀?滞胀就是恶性通货膨胀与经济衰退同时发生,上个世纪 70 年代就发生过一次,起因也是石油价格突然飞
涨。
从经济学的简单供给需求理论来看,物价上升的起因不外乎需求增加或供给减少,需求增加导致物价上涨的问题不大,
因为需求增加表示经济繁荣,人们手上的钱多了,当然,钱多也可能是钞票印得多,若是因为经济繁荣而导致物价上升,民怨不
会太深,唯一要照顾的是竞争力差的弱势社群。但是,如果物价上升是因为供给短缺,那么,就是全民痛苦,除了极少数炒家通
过炒作短缺的物资而发财之外,因为供给短缺的同时,社会上绝大部份的人收入没有增加,如何应付高涨的物价?收入没增加而
物价上升,结果是减少消费,人人减少消费的结果是经济衰退。
如果美国经济复苏因油价飞升而受阻,对全球股市都不利。
中东的局势越动乱,对中国越有利。 2001 年的 911 事件是转捩点, 911 之後,布殊总统全力反恐,外交政策大转变,
布殊在任的 8 年就是中国崛起成为世界工厂的 8 年,布殊为了拉拢中国一起反恐,就推动支持中国加入世贸组织,从此美国市场
大门为中国打开,最後,发明牛仔裤的美国连一家牛仔裤工厂也没有了。奥巴马上任后,外交政策再变,开始与回教国家修好,
准备从伊拉克撤军,把中国视为第一假想敌,当然,为了钱,还是不得不隆重地招待前往访问的胡锦涛,但美国处处针对中国的
新外交战略已成。只不过,如果中东专制政权一个接一个倒下,如果取而代之的是回教原教旨主义者,美国的外交政策能不再一
次改变吗?现在,奥巴马正全力以赴,在埃及物色能听美国指挥的政治人物以接管政权,没有精神余力来对付中国,打贸易战。
20 国财长会议结束,讨论如何衡量全球经济失衡,这个会议很明确地是西方先进国家与新兴国家的一场纷争,西方先进
国企图罗列一些罪证,来指斥新兴国家搞到全球经济失衡,搞到今日新兴国家经济欣欣向荣,而西方先进国则日落西山、经济低
迷。换言之,西方先进国企图以各种藉口来指控新兴国家操控经济,导致西方先进国的经济遭受打击。
这种指控,新兴国家能不让步吗?不可能的,完全不让步的结果是一拍两散,西方先进国等起贸易保护的高墙,讨价还
价的结果,中国财长终於成功地建议以贸易账户来取代货币汇率与外汇储备这两个指标,这是一个重要的会议,因为会大大影响
中国政府的政策,以免被西方国家指摘为全球经济失衡的罪魁。换言之,今后中国要大量增加入口,才能平衡强劲的出口。要增
加入口,就要削减入口税, G20 财长会议一结束,市场马上传出中国要降化妆品及奶粉的入口税,大家要留意。
2011 年03 月03 日

Dear Friends
The stock market fell heavily for the first two months in 2011. Many small punters did not believe the the market
would fall andwent in, hoping the market would rebound. Indeed there was no logical reason why the market should fall.
Singapore economy is doing well and the government in its budget is paiying out financial goodies to the people. US stocks
keep rising to two years’ new high. There is no reason for Singapore stock market to fall.
In my opinion, the only reason for the market to fall because too many people think there is no reason for it to fall.
Thus, many individual short term punters gamble on market’s rebound, gamble on derivative instruments in particular, hoping
to have good returns with small capital outlay. But we cannot deny the big punters with their financial backing are able to
press the stocks until the small punters to surrender and give up.
I believe in fundamental analysis. The fundamentals did not turn sour during the past two months. I cannot guess
and do not want to guess the market’s short term fluctuations. Now is best to patiently wait for the corporate results which
support the stock prices. Listed companies are going to announce their corporate results; those companies with good improved
profits would make their stock prices look cheap as PE ratio would be much lower to attract investment interest.
The Jasmine Revolution that started in Tunisia has spread like wild fire, engulfing North Africa and all the Arab
countries in the Middle East.
Tunisia is still in turmoil since the president stepped down. Egypt is under the control of military junta. Oil
producing Libya is out of control. German and British oil companies have begun to evacuate their staff. In other word, oil
production has stopped. Peoples of Iran, Bahrain, Yemem and Jordan demonstrate to overthrow the governments.
Midde East and North Africa countries can be grouped into oil and non oil producing ones. US only concerns with
who is who governing the oil producing countries. North Africa and Middle East cooutries can also be grouped into pro US
and anti US. US, under the internal pressure of own people will oppose pro US governments to use force to surpress the
demonstrations; therefore chances of these pro US regimes being overthrown are greater. Anti US groups will surely use force
to clamp down the demonstrations; these regimes will not collapse without bloodshed.
Many years ago the fanatic Gaddafi openly financed and supported Muslim extremists. Then one day US fighters
flew over Lybian sky and started bombing with intent to kill him. Gaddafi, escaped and his life spared, became tamer since.
Later when US invaded Iraq, Gaddafi got scared, and began to communicate with Western countries. There are US and
European oil companies exploring Lybian oil fields today.
The unrests in Middle East and North Africa give US headaches. The locality is the largest global oil export region.
Rising oil price will lead to price hike in other commodities. US is now in the wake of economic recovery and can ill afford
continuous rising oil price that may lead to what the economists termed stagnation.
What is stagnation? It is where vicious inflation and recession happen at the same time. It happened in the 70s of the
last century once due to certain rise in oll price.
A price rise is either due to demands increase or supplies decrease, a simple economic concept. If the price rise is
due to increase in demands, the issue is not so crittcal as it signifies economic prosperity; people have more money to spend
(though it may be due to printing of currency notes). People do not grumble that much if inflation is due to booming economy.
In this case, only the less competitive and weaker group needs to be taken care of. If the price rise is the result of short supplies,
then except for a few hoarders, most people whose income remains static will suffer as income lags behind rising prices.
Consumption and expenditure will be cut, and economic recession follows.
Should US economic recovery is hindered by rising oil price, global stock markets will be adversely affected.
More frequent turbulences they are in Middle East the better it is for China. The 911 attack in 2001 was the
watershed for China. President Bush’s all out efforts to counter terrorism altered his foreign policy. China became the world
factory during Bush’s 8 years tenure. In order to have China against terrorism, Bush supported China’s entry to World Trade
Organisation, thus opened up US market to China. As a result not a single US factory that originally rolled out cowboy jeans
remaind in business. When Obama was elected, US foreign policy changed again. US is trying to woo Muslin countries,
getting ready to pulll out from Iraq, liken China as an adversary. Nontheless, America had to ceremoniously welcome China’s
Hu Jing Tao on his visit to US in return for financial aids. Inspite of this, the US foreign strategy to contain China has been
formulated.
Should the dictatorship Middle East regimes collapse one after another and these regimes ruled by Muslim fundamentalists,
US foreign policy may yet change again. Obama is now trying to find a suitable pro US candidate to govern Egypt. Obama has
no more energy to trade waring with China.
The 20 nation finance minister forum on global inbalnce is over. It is conspicuously a meeting of tussle between
Western fully developed nations and newly developing nations.Western fully developed nations have gathered some evidences
to accuse the newly developing nations for causing the economic inbalance to prosperity at the expense of the fully developed
nations. In other word the fullty developed nations are using all kinds of pretexts to blame the newly developing nations for
their economic woes.
Will the developing nations keep quiet? Not so. Yet to ignore the accusations means each goes its own way. Fully
developed nations will exercise protectionism. As a compromise, Chinese finance minister suggested using trade accounts in
lieu of exchange rates and foreign reserves as the benchmark. The G20 meeting was an important meeting that would have far
reaching consequences to China’s government policy to avoild being accused as the chief culprit of economic inbalance. In
short, China will have to increase imports by lowering import tarriff to counter her strong exports. The moment when the G20
meeting ended, rumours had it that China would be lowering the import tariff for comestics and milk powder.
Take a note of it.
03/03/2011
----------------------------------------------
just sharing, not advising
ein55
Investing Mentor
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2010 12:31 am

Post by ein55 »

Thanks for sharing Prof Chan's monthly newsletter, very insightful, esp on STI's major correction.
Dennis Ng
Site Admin
Posts: 9781
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
Location: Singapore
Contact:

Post by Dennis Ng »

JIMMYKKL wrote:2011 年03 月份
Dear Friends
The stock market fell heavily for the first two months in 2011. Many small punters did not believe the the market would fall and went in, hoping the market would rebound. Indeed there was no logical reason why the market should fall.

Singapore economy is doing well and the government in its budget is paiying out financial goodies to the people. US stocks keep rising to two years’ new high. There is no reason for Singapore stock market to fall.

In my opinion, the only reason for the market to fall because too many people think there is no reason for it to fall.


Thus, many individual short term punters gamble on market’s rebound, gamble on derivative instruments in particular, hoping to have good returns with small capital outlay. But we cannot deny the big punters with their financial backing ("the invisible hands") are able to press the stocks until the small punters to surrender and give up.


I believe in fundamental analysis. The fundamentals did not turn sour during the past two months. I cannot guess and do not want to guess the market’s short term fluctuations.

Now is best to patiently wait for the corporate results which support the stock prices. Listed companies are going to announce their corporate results; those companies with good improved profits would make their stock prices look cheap as PE ratio would be much lower to attract investment interest.
Hi all,
notice the similarities of what I said and what Prof Chan said?
1. fundamentally, there is no reason for Singapore markets to fall, so what happened so far is likely a Correction.

2. the Big Punters (or what I called Invisible Hands) are using the recent market falls to shake out retail investors, so that they can buy more to position for the Last Rally in the current Bull Market.

3. Focus on the Big Picture, the Big Trend, global stock markets are still in uptrend (currently). I cannot and do not want to guess the markets' short term fluctuations.

Yesterday, a multi-millionaire attended my Path to Financial Freedom Workshop.

After the workshop, he came up to me and said he agreed with everything I shared, including the 2 questions the Rich ask themselves before they make investment decisions. He said it is clear from what I shared I really know what I'm talking about and he can confirm that I'm now teaching the knowledge that helped me reach Millionaire status, not some theory that is unproven and untested.

Remember that I said in seminars how I wish I can learn from Tan Sri Tan Chin Tuan? Well, it turned out that this gentleman retired over 30 years ago in his 40s then, and he used to work for Tan Chin Tuan...so this is the closest thing I get to learn from Tan Chin Tuan, to learn from his former staff.

P.S. here's more info about this man I greatly respect, Tan Sri Tan Chin Tuan http://www.tanfoundation.com.sg/aboutus_OurFounder.php

He told me that he also find that Orchard Parade Holdings is undervalued, according to his estimation, the Net Aseet Value should be around S$3.20 or more instead of whatever reported in the Balance Sheet (on 4 Mar 2011, Orchard Parade Holdings share price is at S$1.50).

He also said he agreed with me there is one last Round of Rally in the Global Stock Markets and also my view that it will be followed by the 2nd coming of the Global Financial Crisis. In his opinion, the next Crisis is likely to come LATEST by Mar 2012 (well, you might know, I didn't even dare to guess the timing, just saying it might be end year 2011 or year 2012).

This round, China Property Markets would Crash too, and China might be in a worse position than in year 2008. In his opinion, U.S. is trying to "bring the world down" in this next Crisis, so that they can start afresh on equal footing with other countries, including China...

As it was already 11.20 pm, and I had to leave, so we didn't discuss further. But if I do meet with him and learn anything from him again, I will share in the forum.
Last edited by Dennis Ng on Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
ahvyee
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 56
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2009 9:24 pm

Post by ahvyee »

Hi Dennis,

I was there too yesterday and it was really great to have another multi millionaire to share his journey and experience..

And he also encourage everyone to learn from someone who is successful like Dennis. So, to those who has not taken any action, I think at least you should listen to another multi-millionaire encouraging you to learn from Dennis, who is very willing to share his knowledge.

The 1st million is always the hardest, so, learn from someone who is willing to teach. =)

Cheers!

p/s: Btw, I am a grad from 2009 and I would say I have never regretted attending Dennis's seminar
JIMMYKKL
Investing Mentor
Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by JIMMYKKL »

2011 年04 月份
各位朋友
3 月份的股市的确如过山车一样的令人惊骇, 但是倒是有惊无险。
日本大地震、大海啸、核灾难已经发生了 20 天,股市曾经下跌,但没有出现恐慌性下跌,在日本核
电厂的部份机组成功重铺电缆,有了电力供应可以抽海水冷却核原料,不必再以最老土的方法射水,市场对
日本核灾难的恐慌已逐渐缓和,接下去的就是如何收拾灾后残局。市场焦点再度回到企业的盈利。
随着3 月份结束,上市企业公布业绩的高峰期告一段落,去年第二季股市下跌,有人认为是炒业绩期
过去了,再没有好消息可炒,於是股价下跌。今年会不会重复去年的情况?我认为机会不大,去年第二季导
致股市下跌的真正原因,是投资者担心经济衰退、担心美国退市,而不是业绩高峰期后没有业绩可炒。
今年,市场担心经济双底衰退的忧虑消失了,更多人相信因为 2012 年是美国总统选举年,联储局主
席伯南克不会轻易退市、不会轻易加息,越来越多人相信 QE2(第二轮量化宽松措施)之后会有 QE3, 2012
年之前加息的机会很低。实际上,美股已接近创历史新高位置了,在各大上市企业公布业绩后, PE 值大幅
降低,低 PE 值是股价的最佳保障。
最近几天,我经常吃日本菜,不是为了支持日本人,而是因为找位子容易了。以前,日本菜除了极高
档的餐室外,余者生意都很好,要排队等座位,因此过去也不多吃日本菜。港人不敢吃日本菜,相信日本人
也会尽可能吃入口的食物,因此,入口食物的商机会早在重建商机出现前出现,日本目前缺粮缺水,要进口
食品饮料,不过,过去日本进口食品、饮料,皆以代工形式入口,换言之,供应商只是代为生产,品牌依然
是日本的品牌,如果你曾经到过日本旅行、你在日本的超市中很难发现来自外国的品牌食品与饮料,日本超
市中的日本饺子、快熟面……这些食品可能在中国生产,或可能在日本生产,但是,一定是日本自己的品
牌,外国品牌不易打入日本市场。至今为止,在本地上市的食品饮料品牌能不能借日本大地震,核辐射惊魂
而打入日本市场仍是未知之数,当然,若只是炒概念,有足够的想像力再加上有人带头炒,就可以炒起来,
炒起来之后才看看概念是否可以变真实。
日本人遭受大难,相信好一段时间里不会有心情出外旅游购物,本地名牌店的一个主要的顾客是日本
人,因此,收租股、零售股可能受到影响。
日本是全世界生产汽车零件、电子零件的中心,今日全球的制造业都奉行 Just in time 的原则,即
尽可能不堆积存货,生产过程以不断供应为原则,没有存货的供应链可能会因为日本大停电而受到影响,缺
乏来自日本的零件、汽车生产、电子用品的生产也会出问题。而受影响的相信也不单是日本品牌的汽车与电
子用品,会涉及其他品牌,因为在全球一体化的大趋势之下,全球采购已成共识,日本生产的汽车与电子零
件技术水平高,已垄断全球市场。
核辐射不会毁日本於一夜,最坏的情况是将来许多日本人会患上癌症,可幸的是,以日本人坚强的
个性与日本经济底子之厚,这场大灾难过后,国家会很快复苏,患癌症还是一样照常生活、照常生产。日本
在这次核灾难之后,抗癌药物的须求增加,医药股这个板块可留意,不过,我不知道在新加坡上市的医药股
所生产的药物是不是以抗癌为主,大家不妨考虑直接买入美国药业股,特别是生产抗癌药物的药厂股,若不
熟悉美国股市,就考虑买基金。此外,还要小心日本的保险公司可能会抛售海外的资产,包括股票以筹集资
金赔偿给受保的客户。
新加坡航空公司已削减新加坡往来东京的航班,人人怕核辐射,现在正是日本缨花盛开时,不知道
日本人有没有心情赏缨?报载目前东京的酒店十室八空,核辐射惊魂对旅游业的打击恐怕会维持相当长的时
间,相信至少得等多两年,外国人才敢到日本赏缨、赏红叶、观雪洗温泉,日本也是我及家人经常去旅游的
地方,春夏秋冬皆宜,真可惜。
今后一段时间,航空公司将面对日本航线没生意,石油价格急升的双重打击,日本核灾难问题暂时
缓和,现在,焦点新闻是多国空军狂炸利比亚,而且,轰炸的范围已远超联合国的所谓设立「禁飞区」,而
是直接攻击利比亚的陆军、炸坦克、军车、军营……所有的军事据点,其中以法国最神勇,法国总统知道,
利比亚只是一个人口很少的小国,打利比亚太容易了,现在正是好机会扬名立威,为明年总统选举立威。一
开战, 石油价格就急升。
2011 年04 月01 日

曾渊沧士个人网页 : www.ycchan.net
过去的海峡指数网页 : http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/indices
如果您想在最短的时间内收到股友通讯录请将您的电子邮址寄交到 email@ycchan.net
或 20 Kramat Lane #03-01 United House Singapore 228773

Dear Friends
The stock market behaved like a frightful roller coaster in March. It was not dangerous albeit frightening.
The stock market went down consequent to Japan’s tsuinami, earth quake and nuclear catastrophe 20 days
ago. The fall in market however, showed no sign of panic. When power lines were reconnected to its nuclear reactors,
enable pumping sea water to cool the overheated reactors instead of using the old method of spraying water on them,
the fear of a nuclear catastrophe gradually subsided. Now is time to clear the aftermath of the castastrophe and the
stock market to focus once again on the corporate profitability.
Listed companies have announced their corporate results by end of March. The market fell in 2nd quarter
of last year because many people thought the play on corporate results was over and no further good news to play with.
Would it be the same this year? Chances are, not likely. The real reason behind last year’s 2Q fall was because
investors were worrying about the economic recession then, and US withdrawal from the markets, which had nothing
to do with corporate results.
There is no economic recession worry this year. Most People believe the Fed Chairman Bernanke would
not hastily wihtdraw from the markets; neither would he raise interest rates, as 2012 is the US presidential election
year. More and more people believe that there will be a QE3 (the third quantitative easing monetary exercise) after
QE2. Chances of raising interest rates before 2012 are slim. In fact, US stocks have almost reached the all time high.
After the announcements of various major listed companies the P/E ratio has substantilly come down, and a low P/E
ratio is the best assurance of stock prices.
I often go to eat Japaniese cuisine lately; not to support Japanese but is easy to get a seat. Befroe, except
for very high class Japanese restaurants, you need to queue up to wait for a seat to have a Japaniese meal, and I seldom
went to eat Japanese cuisine. Hong Kong people now dare not take Japanese food, and I believe Japanise now eat
imported food as much as possible. The business opportunities for imported food in Japan are ahead of re-establishing
business opportunities. Japan is at present in need of water. It needs to import food and beverages. Japan used to
import Japanese branded food and beverages produced by authorised manufacturers outside Japan. If you ever been to
Japan you would notice there are hardly foreign food and beverages sold in Japanese supermarkets. Dumplings and
fast cook noodles are Japanese branded, although they could be produced in China or Japan itself. It has been very
difficult for foreign brands to break into Japanese market. It is yet to see if local listed food and beverage brands
would be able to break iinto Japanese market after the earth quake and nuclear scare With imagination and some one
willing, the concept to break into Japanese market may be viable, but whether viability can become a reality can only
be certain later.
After the castastrophe, Japanese will not have the mood to travel and shop for quite a while. Major
customers of local shops selling branded goods are Japanese. Rental and retail stocks may be affacted.
Japan is the global manufacturing hub of vehicle spares and electronic components. Manufacturers
worldwide to day are practicing ‘just in time’ policy; that is: processing with constatnt supplies of materials without
carrying stocks. Non stock carrying supply chains may be affacted by Japan’s electricity stoppage. Production of
vehicles and electronic goods will be interrupted due to shortage of spares and components from Japan; not just
Japanese but other brands as well. Globalisation makes worldwide purchases a common practice. High tech vehicle
spares and electronic components produced by Japan have monopolised the world market.
Radiation will not destroy Japan overnight. The worst senario being many Japanese will contact
cancerous diseases. Fortunately Japanese are strong willed and with Janpan’s strong economic foundation, the country
will soon recover from the catasrophe just occurred. Those with cancerous diseases will lead their livelihood as usual,
and production goes on as normal. Demands for anti-cancer medicine will increase. Take niote of the stocks.of
companies manufacturing such medicine. I do not kniow if majority of Singapore listed medicine manufacturers
manufacture anti-cancer medicine. You may consider buying US medical stocks, those manufacturing anti cancer
medicine in particular. If you are not familiar with US stock market, you may consider buying some unit funds.
However, beware that Japanese insurance companies may sell off their overseas assets including stocks to have
sufficient funds to compensate insured customers.
SIA has reduced the number of Singapore/Tokyo flights. Everybody is afraid of radiation. Now is the
cherry blossom season. I wonder if Japanese still have the mood to enjoy it. According to newslpapers 80% of hotel
rooms are vacant. Radiation fear will hit tourism for awhile. It may take 2 years before foreigners dare to go during
cherry blossom season to appreicate blooming cherry, red leafs and enjoy sauna bathing. Japan is a country where
Spring, Summer Autumn and Winter are amicable. My family and I go there quite often.
Airlines may face lacking business on Japan routes and rising oil price issues. Japan’s nuclear
castastrophe worry has for the time being subsided. News now focuses on bombing of Lybia by several nations. The
bombed territories have far exceeded what the UN’s so called ‘no flight zone’, Bombing also directly targets at Lybian
army, tanks, military vehicles, military camps ……..and all the military strategic centres. France is the most
outspoken.among the countries participating in the bombing. French president knows Lybia is a small country with a
small population, and it is too easy to attack Lybia. French president is making use of this opportunity to publicise and
establish his authority for next year’s presidential elextion.
Once the war starts, oil price will rocket upward.
01/04/2011
----------------------------------------------
just sharing, not advising
JIMMYKKL
Investing Mentor
Posts: 131
Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 3:00 pm

Post by JIMMYKKL »

Dr Chan Latest Newsletter - May 2011

2011 年05 月份
各位朋友
奥萨马被杀不等於世界从此太平。今日的卡伊达组织早已化整为零,分散为许多地方性组织,分布范围
更广,北非,中东的茉莉花革命的背后力量之一就是卡伊达组织。奥萨马被杀当天令美股上升只是短暂的动
力,奥萨马死后,奥巴马会认为反恐之战已打胜一场大仗,不会再投放太多时间精力,把时间精力用以改善
美国经济。
美国国会共和党把奥巴马的财政预算案大幅削减380 亿美元政府开支,好肯定,美国政府削减开支,结
果会是穷人减少福利、没钱花,这肯定会使到经济复苏的步伐放慢,奥巴马将如何面对这个难题?如何面对
明年总统选举的压力,经济一日不复苏,奥巴马就不可能连任,看来,奥巴马只能拜托联储局的伯南克了,
希望伯南克能继续印钞票,QE2 之后有QE3、QE4.....去年底,伯南克在准备推出QE2 时告诉公众,推出QE2
的目的就是要推高股价,希望美国人在股市旺盛之后感到自己比过去更富有,从而增加消费,消费的增加就
能使到经济复苏,这就是所谓的财富效应。
美国联储局大印钞票的结果是标准普尔把美国的主权信贷评级展望列为「负面」,震惊全球金融界。过
去许多年,美国的评级机构经常被批评为帮美国政府甚至是美资大鳄当打手,专门狙击外国货币,去年这些
评级机构就与美资大鳄联手狙击欧元,手法是先由评级机构把欧洲五国的国债评级一降再降,然后是大鳄大
举沽空欧元。现在,标普倒转枪头把美国评级展望列为「负面」,倒是耐人寻味。
美国不断地印钞票,债台高筑,债务已达天文数字,根本不可能还清,唯一方法是让美元贬值,以降低
美元的购买力来降低债权国,债权人的利益。当然,因为美国国债全部以美元为计算单位,美国政府随时可
以印美钞还债,因此,纯粹从还债而论,持有美元国债的确是零风险。
当然,如果有一天美元不再是国际贸易的共用货币,美元国债没人要,美国政府就不得不以他国货币发
行国债,那时美国国债就有还不出的危机。不过,这个日子还很远。
标普将美国评级展望列为负面,但保留AAA 的最高级评级,观察期为两年,为什么是两年?因为2012
年是美国总统选举年,伯南克不可能停止印钞票,至少要等到选举过后,时间上不是刚好两年吗?因此,我
认为这不过是标普摆摆姿态罢了,大家也不必大惊小怪。
5 月7 日新加坡大选投票,选举后政府可能会推出一些打压通胀的措施,新加坡今年3 月份物价指数
(CPI) 上升5.2%,选举中通胀是一个主要课题。新加坡元不断升值,理论上可以压低通货膨胀,但是,新加
坡经济增长率高达8.5%,吸引大量海外资金流入,造成货币供应增加,推高通胀。楼价也是选举中另一个主
要课题,不过楼价问题是复杂的,往往是有楼的人希望楼价升,无楼的人希望楼价跌,国家发展部部长马宝
山说:「房子是一份资产,降低房价是全民资产贬值。」是的,今日的新加坡,几乎全民是业主,担心资产
贬值多过担心房价涨。从马宝山的谈话中,我们可以得到一个结论:新加坡楼价仍然是易升难跌。
在香港上市的中国远洋第一季业绩亏损,不是说航运已经复苏吗?为什么中国最大的船公司会出现亏
损?原因是航运需求的的确确是上升了,但是目前的形势是大量新船下水,导致货运产能增加而压低运费,
不利船务公司;但新船下水多,货柜需求增,货柜制造业也就生意大增。另一只在香港上市的新加坡资金控
制胜狮货柜就赚大钱。
日本地震,海啸,与核灾之后股市已有显著的升幅,这是因为日本政府正在花大钱进行重建,大家不妨
留意新加坡有什么上市企业会得益,参于日本重建。
中国人民银行行长周小川公开说,中国外汇储备已经超过本身需要的合理水平。
目前中国外汇储备已超过3 万亿美元,有人说,中国只需要1 万亿美元外汇,那多出来的该如何处理?
在香港设立的人民币资金池是一个方法,新加坡也正在积极争取成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心,如
果新加坡真能成为香港之外的另一个人民币离岸中心,对银行业有利,多了一些生意。
近来中国政府正在全力打压通货膨胀,谣言满天飞,特别是加息的谣言。不利中国股市,也影响新加坡
股市。
2011年05 月06 日

Dear Friends
Osama has been killed does not equate to world peace. To day’s Al-Qaeda has dispersed into many localised
organisations covering wider territories. Al-Qaeda is one of the forces behind the Jasmine Revolution in North Africa
and the Middle East. The rise in US stocks on the day Osama was killed was a short run reaction. Obama may think
the war against terrorists has been largely won, and spend more time and effort to improve US economy.
US Congress republicans drastcally cut down Obama’s public spending budget by 38 billion. The budget cut will
affect the welfare of the low income group, and as a result slow down the economic recovery. How does Obama deal
with the problem? Facing next year’s presidential election pressure, if the economy does not recover in time, Obama
might not be re-elected for the second term. Obama has to depend on Fed’s Bernanke to continually printing currency
notes, QE2 followed by QE 3 and QE4 …….before QE2 Bernanke had said the purpose of QE2 was to push up the
stock prices and hoped Americans would feel themselves richer, and thus spend more to quicken the pace of recovery,
the so called ‘prosperity effect.’
Consequent to theFed’s voluminous note printing, Standzrd and Poor shocked the global financial sector by
rating US sovereign creidt prospect as ‘negative’.For many years in the past, US credit rating organisations had been
criticised for being the bouncers of US government and the big investment firms (the big crocodiles) funded by US
capital. Last year, US credit rating organisations together with US funded investment firms attacked Euro. The credit
organisations first kept lowering the rating of Europe’s 5 nations’ sovereign bonds, followed by dumping Euro. Now
Standard and Poor’s rating of US credit prospect as ‘negative’ warrants us to think and digest the move behind it..
The US continual note printing has piled up debts to astronomical figures that can never be cleared. The only
way is to devalue US$, to lower the US$ purchasing power and to reduce the benefits creiditor nations. As US
sovereign bonds are denominated in US$, US government can print currency notes to settle its debts at will. From
purely repayment point of view, holding US sovereign bonds is 0 risk..
If and when one day US$ cease to be the common currency of international trades, no one would want to have
US sovereign bonds, US government has to issue bonds denomiated in other currencies, then US issued sovereign
bonds would run the risk of non repayment The day for such situation to happen is still far fetch though.
S & P rates US creidit prospect as ‘negative’, but to remain in AAA classification, subject to review after 2
years. Why 2 years? It is because 2012 is the presidential election year before which Bernanke cannot stop printing
currency notes; isn’t it 2 years by the time election is over? I therefore think S & P is just putting up a show.
We do not have to over react to it.
May 07 is Singapore election day.The government may implement some anti-inflation policies after the election.
Singapore’s March CPI rose 5.2%; inflation is a major issue of the election campaign. Sinagpore dollars keep rising,
in theory it can counter inflation. Howeve, Singapore’s economic growth hits 8.5 %, attracting large sums of foreign
capital inflow, increasing the currency supply and pushing up inflaltion. Property pricing is another major and
complex issue of the election campayne. Property owners hope the prices to go up; those without property hope the
property prices to come down. The minister of national development Ma Bao Shan said: “A house is an asset,
lowering the price means devaluing the asset of the people”. To day, almost all Singaporeans are property owners;
they worry more if prices of properties fall.
Hong Kong listed China Ever Sail Company Ltd incurred some losses in the 1st quarter. Didn’t we say freight
fowarding was recovering? How is that China’s largest shipping could incur losses? The fact is increases in freight
fowarding demands have been more than offset by new ships available, thus pressing down freight charges. As new
ships come on stream, demands for bulk containers increase; container manufacturers will have more business.
Singamas Container Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong Listed Singapore company is making good profit.
Stock markets have gone up after Japan’s tsunami, earth quake and nuclear catastrophe. Japanese government is
spending hugh sums to rebuild; take note if any Singapore listed company that participate in Japan’s rebuilding
projects.
The head of The People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiao Chuan openly has remarked that China’s foreign reserve in
excess of self requirements China’s foreign reserve has exceeded US$3 trillion. There are people who say China only
require US$1 trillion. How to deal with the excess? One way is to establish in Hong Kong a Renminbi capital pool.
Singapore is actively to set up an off shore renminbi centre beside Hong Kong. If successful, it would benefit banks.
Chinese government is all out to clamp down inflation. There are rumours everywhere. The rumour of interest
hike in particular will adversely affect Chinese stock market as well as Singapore sotck market.
06/05/2011
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just sharing, not advising
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