The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

This forum is created to discuss everything about Investing, from investment principles, to theories, concepts, strategies to investment jargons to provide a easy reference for everyone

Moderators: alvin, learner, Dennis Ng

alvin
Investing Mentor
Posts: 325
Joined: Sat Sep 26, 2009 1:52 pm

The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by alvin »

Hey guys, not sure if anyone was there at the Shares Investment Forum on 1 Sep 12. I saw Ronald, Serene, Jimmy and Chang Yong there though. Enjoy the summary :D
------------------
Jim Rogers spoke as part of the series of the Phillip Investment Festival on 1 Sep 12. It is my first time seeing Jim speak live. Read on for my thoughts on the talk.

Commodities

As you would have expected, he has been bullish about agriculture, and his stand remains. He would go to say, “My statement about farmers driving Lamborghinis and stock brokers driving taxis stand”. I want to elaborate on agriculture. Interestingly, after Jim mentioned about disinterest in majority of people going to the farmlands, a lady said that she broke the convention by starting a farm management business 3 years ago. She was voicing the difficulties she faced in the business as it doesn’t seem to be lucrative given it being a low margin business. She was previously in diamond mining and she understand how lucrative the high margin business can be. Agricultural products, being a survival necessity, are consumed by people on a daily basis. There is concern if food prices become too expensive. Riots will occur and people will pressure government to implement price ceilings to keep the price under control. Jim acknowledged that the farming is the worst business to be in for the past 30 years. But that is precisely the point where we are seeing less people who want to farm. He added that the average age of farmers in US is 58 years old; 66 years old in Japan; and 58 years old in Australia. Supply and inventory continue to dwindle and agriculture commodities prices can only go up. He envisaged that one day it will become a high margin business and the farmers who pulled through the tough times will make it real rich. Jokingly, he offered his daughters to her as god children.

Nothing last forever and he expect a bubble will form for commodities one day. But he does not know when the bubble will form and collapse. Commodities have been bullish for 13 years and supply is dwindling in every type of commodity at the moment.

Superpowers

He said that UK was the superpower in the 19th century. In the 20th century, it was the US. There will be a recurrent rise in China in the 21st century (China was already once a superpower). He bought Chinese stocks four times in his life and he has not sold any yet. There will be hiccups in the Chinese economy and these are opportunities to buy more Chinese stocks. He said he is not going to sell because these stocks are for his children and grandchildren. People must realise the holding period that he is looking at, which is probably at least another 30-40 years. A guy sort of accused Jim when he said he bought Chinese stocks in 2007 after listening to Jim’s bullishness about China. We all know what happened in 2008. Jim only bought Chinese stocks 4 times in his life and he did not buy them in 2007, and he did not intend to sell in his lifetime. Jim just said he is bullish on China because he is still long on the stocks, and this does not mean he wants to buy. This guy, like many others, read the wrong things. He wanted to buy and sell based on tips and become rich overnight. He got the entry, exit, and time-frame all wrong but expect to profit. Apparently he is not taking responsibility of his own mistakes. He wants to put the blame on others.

The US Dollar is going to lose its position as the world’s reserve currency and it is already happening now. It is going to be a gradual shift. However, Jim is currently long USD because there is still a large number of people who believe in USD as a safe haven if market turmoil is going to happen in the near future.

Chinese stocks have reached a 3-year low but it has no sign of panic so he is not buying now.

Euro Zone

As this is an election year for US and Germany, the government will not let the EU colllapse in Jim’s view. The economy will be propped up by the central banks. But post election years in 2013-2014, Jim expects a bearish market as spending cuts will be implemented. He is one who believes in the Austrian School of economics – government should not intervene in the economy and let the boom and bust happen naturally. He believes intervention actually worsen the booms and busts.

Emerging Markets

Myanmar and North Korea are countries with potential and are undervalued. It is quite impossible to invest in both countries now unless you conduct businesses there. Myanmar used to be the richest country in Southeast Asia in 1962. But it has since become the poorest country. The positive sign is that it is opening up its economy. Jim sees the two Koreas would unite. North Korea is rich in resources and have a large 70 million-strong disciplined workforce. With capital inflow and sound management practice from the South, Korea is a force to be reckoned with.

Property

He sees no opportunities in Singapore properties now as it is too expensive. Singapore is one of the most expensive places to buy a property. Hong Kong is a worse example. Someone popped the question if US properties are good buys. Jim reckoned that US real estate is cheap and he sees more opportunities in buying agricultural areas though. Jim does not like property investment because it is less liquid. He prefers an asset that he can sell quickly. He also expects interest rate rise and one must make sure he has the holding power to pull through the inflationary period. However, most owners must be able to hold on too, otherwise desperate selling will trigger a market panic.

Passion

Jim spoke about his passion – he enjoys finding out what is going on around the world. This curiosity has made him travel around the world twice and constantly poking his nose in socio-political happenings. With a bountiful of knowledge, he can smell investment opportunities which most of us cannot. My fear is that many people may be motivated by Jim’s talk and think that the best way to invest is his way. But few realised his investment success is a privilege of his undying passion about knowing more about the world. That is what makes most of us fail. There is no guru that you can follow. You have to find a passion in life and investing may not be your cup of tea. Most people get into investment because they want to be rich and that is the reason why they end up losing money. Even Jim said that most people are better off doing index investing. They are too disastrous to make their own investment decisions by listening to gurus.

A young lady was asking about career choice and she is a economics graduate. Jim advised her to figure out what she loved to do. If she goes to a clinic and while waiting, what kind of magazine would she pick up? He said that finance is the hottest industry right now but it is going to be the worst place to be in the future. Each year there are so many MBAs being created and there are too much competition in the industry. He told her if she chooses finance, she better have to love it a lot. On the contrary, in the 50s and 60s, nobody wanted to go to Wall Street. Jim went ahead and he stumbled into something that he liked. I find it very amusing because he is consistent in the market as he is in his life. We know that he is a true contrarian against most market participants. But knowing that he chose a career where nobody wants to go into, he is also a contrarian in life!

How to be Rich?

I want to say this honestly to you – you may not be suitable to pick your own investments if you do not have passion in the market. Do not think investing in the market will give you the lifeline to escape the job that you do not like. You have to find the passion in your life so that it does not feel like work at all. Mike Bellafiore also shared this during the seminar. Trading is a tough business and you cannot trade without a passion in it. He said time stands still when he is doing trading research because he enjoys it. How many of us can say that we really are obsessed about the market? Or it is just an avenue where you can increase your wealth because your current job does not pay you enough and moreover you do not enjoy it. You want to get out of the rat race. Yes, you can grow your money while you work. But do it responsibly through index investing. It is possible you can grow your money to a few millions if you save and invest diligently. But it will take you 20-30 years. Most people are not satisfied. They want to be rich yesterday and they start to listen to hot tips and get themselves worse financially. The vicious cycle continues until they wake up from the fact that they are better off with passive investing. My advice is to stick to your passive index funds until you are sure you find your passion in the markets.

If you like the market and want to be ultra rich, Jim said that you should put all your eggs in one basket and watch it very carefully. Only concentrated portfolio can help you beat market returns but it is very risky as well. Jim will also tell you to buy low and sell high. His investment criteria is as simple as something that is cheap and he sees positive change in the future. He already mentioned this in his book, Adventure Capitalist.

http://www.bigfatpurse.com/2012/09/my-t ... s-sees-it/
www.bigfatpurse.com - Living a Life of Abundance
louiskst
Gold Forum Contributor
Posts: 83
Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2012 9:43 am

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by louiskst »

Hi Alvin,

Thanks for the summary, I was there too. Jim Roger is a very friendly, humble, very knowledgeable and of cause, he is a very good speaker.

louikst
Battleship
Gold Forum Contributor
Posts: 114
Joined: Sun Feb 13, 2011 10:31 pm

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by Battleship »

Hi Alvin,

As usual, you always give good summary after attending every seminars. Thanks. Anyway, just to add on, Jim Rogers mentioned a book title, "Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us" by Daniel H.Pink for reading purpose. You all can take a look if you have not read this book.

http://www.amazon.com/Drive-Surprising- ... 0143145088

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc
Cheers!
Battleship
kolch
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:03 pm

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by kolch »

Hi Alvin:

Thanks for the summary.
For index investing, does it mean invest in STI, DJIA and etc?

Cheers!
Kok Leong
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by candy_chia »

An excerpt of the article that explains what is Index Investing:


An index is a statistical measure of the changes in a portfolio of stocks representing the overall market.

Indexes are great tools for telling us what direction the market is taking and what trends are prevailing.

Index funds are simply mutual funds that Based on an Index and Mirror its performance.

For years, many academics have been saying that it is impossible to consistently beat the market without raising your risk level - a theory known as Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).

So in 1975, John Bogle took the stance that "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" and created the first low-cost mutual fund that mirrored the S&P 500 index.

But, wait a minute. Isn't the whole purpose of mutual funds to coax us lowly investors into enlisting the help of professionals who can achieve superior returns? That's the idea the mutual fund industry has been trying to sell us for many years. The truth is that a Majority of mutual funds Fail to Outperform the S&P 500.

A fund's return is the total return of the portfolio minus the fees an investor pays for management and fund expenses. If a fund charges 2%, then you have to outperform the market by that amount just to be even.

Here's where index funds enter the picture.

Their main advantage is
==> LOWER MANAGEMENT FEES than you would get from a regular mutual fund.

An average non-index fund has an expense ratio of around 1.5%, whereas many index funds have an expense ratio of around 0.2%!


The reason the costs are lower is because an index fund is NOT ACTIVELY MANAGED.Fund managers only need to maintain the appropriate weightings to match the index performance - a technique known as passive management.

The deceptive thing about the "passive" label is that most indexes are actively selected. Take the S&P 500, for example: when the index changes, it's almost like getting the S&P Index Committee's advice for free.

Investing in an index fund Doesn't Guarantee that you'll never lose money. You will go down in a bear market and up in a bull market.

Historically, the return of the S&P 500 has been around 10-11%, which is pretty good.

The key here is to HOLD ON FOR THE LONG TERM. If you get nervous during a downturn and sell, you'll probably miss the recovery.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/ ... z25K2s7M5w
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Low-cost Index Fund

Post by candy_chia »

The most successful investor in history, Warren Buffett, advocates that

those Unwilling or Unable to intelligently Evaluate Individual Stocks should Invest in a low-cost index fund such as those offered by VANGUARD.


Why?

Index funds boast three distinct advantages over their actively-managed counterparts:

1) They do not require corporate analysis or an understanding of accounting, financial theory, or portfolio policy.

2) They have almost non-existent expense ratios, providing a significant competitive edge over actively managed funds and almost completely ensuring superior long-term performance.

3) They are made up of dozens or hundreds of companies. This diversification reduces company-specific risk.


What is an index fund?


An index fund is a mutual fund designed to mirror the performance of one of the major indices (e.g., the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Wilshire 5000, Russell 2000, etc.)

Unlike traditional, actively managed mutual funds where portfolio managers evaluate, analyze and acquire individual stocks, index funds are Passively Managed.

Basically, this means they consists of a Pre-selected Group of Stocks that Rarely, if ever, Changes.

An investor that bought an index fund designed to mirror the Dow, for example, would experience price movements almost perfectly in sync with the quoted value of the Dow he hears on the nightly news.

Likewise, an investor that built a position in an index fund designed to mimic the S&P 500 is, in essence, acquiring stock in all five hundred of the companies that make up that index.

http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/mut ... 080804.htm
randwick
Gold Forum Contributor
Posts: 114
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 2010 11:15 am

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by randwick »

Hi Alvin,

Thanks for posting a summary of the talk; most appreciated.

Regards
Be happy, stay healthy & grow your savings wisely.
kolch
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 43
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:03 pm

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by kolch »

Hi Candy:

Thanks for the explanation on index.

Cheers!
Kok Leong
sereneloong
Investing Mentor
Posts: 155
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 11:18 pm
Contact:

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by sereneloong »

Thanks Alvin for the summary.

I posted "Almost Live" updates during the conference here:
http://www.facebook.com/reallifetheory

Hope it will be useful.

Cheers,
Serene
Zero Cuisine Cauliflower Mash. 60 calories. Zero guilt. Limited time offer: Free shipping! http://www.zerocuisine.com
hope
Silver Forum Contributor
Posts: 46
Joined: Wed Aug 18, 2010 3:29 pm

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by hope »

Hi Alvin, Candy,

Thanks for the summary and explaination on index funds.
Hi, I am newbie and just graduated from Dennis's seminar last week. Hope to learn from all of you :)
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by candy_chia »

Hi Serene,

Thank you for your generous sharing.

It is a always a pleasure reading your postings on http://www.facebook.com/reallifetheory.

Are these 2 books recommended by Mike Bellafiore?

Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us: book review & ebook
http://www.amazon.com/Drive-Surprising- ... 1594488843
http://www.donpeterson.com.my/ebook/Dri ... atesUs.pdf

Flow, The Psychology of Optimal Experience: book review & ebook
http://penguinunearthed.wordpress.com/2 ... xperience/
http://www.waltercarl.neu.edu/PDFs/flowpaper.pdf


A snapshot of Serene's coverage:

'Almost Live' update at the Shares investment Conference 2012 - Q&A with Jim Rogers, Mike Bellafiore and Avtar Sandu.

Highlights

* Jim: I have no rigid risk management system.

I try not to break my rule of only Buying during Collapse. On his purpose now: being a good father to his 2 little girls which is a lot of fun.

* Mike: Books to read - Flow & Drive. Lessons learnt: only be a trader if when you do your research, time stands still, and is not work to you.

* Jim: To accumulate RMB, you can open a RMB account with certain banks and have a standing order to convert a certain amount per day. He also has a China bank account and any money he makes in RMB goes there.

* Jim: He admits that he is usually too early by a few years so concedes he is very bad at market timing. He doesn't do short term trades.

*Avtar: sometimes mkt sentiment can trump over fundamentals.

* Mike: when things are growing and growing, there is a huge premium on stocks. When things are just good and not awesome, they may tank?!

* Jim: when you buy on panic, you re almost always right. But DON'T BUY if the country is Collapsing or Losing a War.

* Jim will sell gold and silver if everyone wants to buy it. He will sell when he sees that anything is a bubble.


* Jim: Don't listen to me. You have to make up your own mind. You hv to stick to WHAT YOU KNOW.

* Jim: Most of the time guys who are over leveraged go bankrupt. But some get stinking rich!

* Jim: I always use the top 2 biggest financial institutions in that country because the govt will usually nationalize it.

* Jim: Long queues may signal a bubble. I BUY when there are Long Queues to Sell!

* Mike: Factor in the big picture, long term fundamentals, then short term technicals. As a trader, I look for the psychology in the chart and the indicators - where is the psych changing. I look for clean charts. Beware: don't keep switching indicators.

* Avtar: You must first study the pros and cons of an instrument before using it. The sleep test: if you can sleep with any investment, you re ok. If not, look again.
sereneloong wrote:Thanks Alvin for the summary.

I posted "Almost Live" updates during the conference here:
http://www.facebook.com/reallifetheory

Hope it will be useful.

Cheers,
Serene
sereneloong
Investing Mentor
Posts: 155
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 11:18 pm
Contact:

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by sereneloong »

Hi Candy,

About the 2 books mentions, after reading the synopsis, Flow is spot on. Mike Bellafiore was basically saying that not everyone should be an intraday trader. One should only be one if when trading, one gets to this state of 'flow' where time stands still....As for Drive, my guess is that that's the one. The other one with the same title is a crime novel...

Dear all,

I would like to add on to one of the statements I typed to be complete:
Jim: I always use the top 2 biggest financial institutions in that country because the govt will usually nationalize it. (INSERT: In case of bankruptcy. Do note that Lehman Brothers was the 4th largest investment bank and was not "saved" by the govt).

Cheers, Serene

Here's another excerpt from Real Life Theory's FB page for those who haven't got a chance to see it:

Shares Investment Conference - Jim Rogers, Investing in today's crazy markets
* Do not trust any politician, those who do usually get hurt the most.

* Jim is trying to buy a house in SG but not enthusiastically, as he expects real estate prices to fall here esp. with govt intervention

* When there is currency debasement and inflation, you must own real assets. But you must have real holding power.

* During deflationary times, cash is gd. Choose a sound currency. At this time, Jim holds Yen, SGD and Swiss francs.

* Jim is optimistic about China in the 21st century but he is not going out buying Chinese shares right now even with the Shanghai index is at a 3 year low... He will buy when it collapses i.e. when people are throwing shares out of the window, when people are saying I ll never buy shares ever again.

* Many ways for the US to default as it is arithmetically impossible for them to pay back.

* Buy criteria: buy cheap when a positive change is coming.. But remember cheap can get cheaper.

* To get rich, study philosophy and history. The former to learn how to think. The latter, to demonstrate to you that things are going to change. Whatever you believe will happen, you re going to be wrong.

* Investing in Chinese agriculture is a good idea.

* "I' m not here to give hot tips."Because if you bought based on a tip, you wouldn't know what to do if it goes up or down. You should only buy if you have done your homework. If you hear it s good to buy agriculture but dunno what to buy, you shouldn't buy because you haven't done your homework.

* HKD is a cheap way to buy USD and RMB.

* Jim is short on India due to the high debt to GDP and how hard it is to do business there.

* RMB is the only currency that can conceivably replace the USD. whenever he can, he buys RMB esp. on dips.

* Politicians blame probs on others and use these prob as an excuse for capital control.. Which has never worked in history.

* US debt is going up 1 trillion a year. Who do you think is going to pay for it? So Jim is short the US mkt.

* Australia having lotsa natural resources and is relatively well managed. Canada too. Jim has AUD and is not selling.

* if you can lock up the interest rates for a long time, do so. Interest rates will go up in the long run even if they might dip in the short term.
Zero Cuisine Cauliflower Mash. 60 calories. Zero guilt. Limited time offer: Free shipping! http://www.zerocuisine.com
sereneloong
Investing Mentor
Posts: 155
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 11:18 pm
Contact:

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by sereneloong »

Those who had questions for Jim, answers will be posted tomorrow morning at 9am here:
http://www.facebook.com/reallifetheory

Cheers,
Serene
Zero Cuisine Cauliflower Mash. 60 calories. Zero guilt. Limited time offer: Free shipping! http://www.zerocuisine.com
sereneloong
Investing Mentor
Posts: 155
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 11:18 pm
Contact:

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by sereneloong »

This is especially for those who had questions for Jim Rogers. As much of the conference was in Q&A style, some version of your questions was asked, and I inferred Jim's answers from there. Also I did ask some direct questions to him whenever I got the chance. Enjoy!

Feel free to share :) and for more updates like this, please click 'like' here:http://www.facebook.com/reallifetheory

Questions & Inferred Answers:

1) If you are the Chairman of the FED, what would you do to bring growth to US, and what would you do to lower unemployment rate?
- From Jim's view about the Eurozone (he believes that countries that should go bankrupt should go bankrupt because that's how capitalism is supposed to work), he does not believe that a country should be put on life support for the sake of. As an analogy, he mentioned that a forest fire might seem bad at first, but ultimately, it burns away the undergrowth and renews the land for future growth.

2) According to Jim Rogers on CNBC; “It’s going to be bad after the next election.” which means the markets are in for
a collapse next year. What sectors will bear the brunt of the fall and what will be the first to recover and by when?
- Throughout the day, Jim was reluctant to give any "tips" and was even more reluctant to give a timeframe. He admits he is bad with market timing. He finds that he is usually way too early like by a few years?! Some things he
did mention that may be of interest to this question is:
- The main sector he keeps talking about is Agriculture, given the historical low levels of inventory now (30-year low), the average age of farmers being in their 60s, the number of agriculture graduates (10,000/year in the states as opposed to 200,000/year for MBAs). The commodities expert at Philips Futures also mention climate change as a possible driver for this sector.

3) What is your view on Europe for the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think there will be a 2-tier Europe in the future? And What does success look like in this scenario?
- There was a panel discussion on the Euro. There appears to be agreement that the Eurozone might survive but barely..it will no longer be the Europe we know. Some countries might break away while some might stay so it seems to imply a 2-tier Europe and the general consensus is that recovery would be slow and painful...

4) What is the most important in your life now? At the same time, if you consider money is still important in your life,
where does it rank in your list? What is your purpose in life?
- What's most important to Jim are his children, and being a good father is his purpose. Given his simple tastes (he told us over lunch that he chooses to wear a bow tie because it's cheaper than a tie!), money doesn't seem to rank too high although he is leaving a legacy for his children through buying Chinese shares whenever there is a collapse (i.e. not now). He hopes in the future, if he is right, his children and grandchildren might think he was a rather smart fellow after all.

5) What would u from now as an individual to contribute to mankind?
- His books and interviews definitely are part of his legacy. He stressed quite abit on the importance for people to think for themselves. If you want to get rich, he advocates reading philosophy (to learn how to think) and history (to understand how the world has worked but more importantly, might work as history tends to repeat itself).

6) The "Animal Spirit" coined by Keynes has worked in bringing the economy back up in the past. Can it work again? If not, what is the difference now? Human nature does not change much.
- Sorry no reference to this occurred during the conference.

7) Given that the countries in the world are economically interlocked, a concerted effort would likely bring the world economy back on it's feet again. This is not happening fast probably because of political reasons. Which country is likely to blink first?
- Jim has not seen any superstructure really ever working in history. He does not support more layers of bureaucracy and government. He thinks politicians usually only make things worse. The 2 exceptions he mentioned are LKY and Deng Xiao Ping. He supports open economies where people are free to decide what they want to do with their money. Capital control has never worked in the long term.
- This is Jim's views on countries: China is the 21st century's darling (The 20th century belonged to the US, and the 19th century belonged to Great Britain). He is also optimistic about Myanmar and North Korea (he asks if anyone know of any way to invest in North Korea. He predicts the North and South reuniting in as little as 5-6 years). He is bearish on Brazil (during recessionary times, but says it would pick up when the bull returns as it has much resources.)and Russia, and is skeptical about India.

8) Mr Roger when you invest in anything, do you analysis it upside and downside ? Meaning do you make sure
the risk upside is double it's downside ? If no why ? If yes, how do you determine it's downside and upside, by looking it's chart (TA) or study the company (FA) or something else?
- His risk management only extends as far as buying on collapse (cheap) when no one else is interested in buying. Totally a FA guy, he does not look at charts; prefers supply and demand. He even said he wished he had some other way of managing the downside.

9) Mr Roger, do you think you become rich today is it because you are lucky ? Or you just happen to invest or trade at the right time to earn you big buck ? Do you believe more in trading or buy and hold ? Do you cut loss when you know you are wrong?
- He did not talk about luck. He takes about doing a lot of homework, reading everything he can get his hands on for a particular investment. He invests on collapse (the right time I suppose) and holds for years and years. He never trades. For instance, he will not sell the chinese shares he has bought, and wishes to pass them down to his children and grandchildren. He has admitted being wrong, and losing money, and is willing to cut loss if his theory is proven wrong.

10) With Bernanke churning the printing press, how long will this asset inflation last in Singapore? what is your view of our property market - is it in a bubble? Apart from hedging into precious metals and commodities, what else should a Singaporean do?
- Jim does not comment on the time frame as he says he is bad with market timing. To be near his children's school, he is looking for a house but not enthusiastically as he believes prices are high. He mentioned that our government usually gets what it wants done done so since they are trying to cool the market, he believes they will be successful. He also mentioned that when there are long queues of people buying, it's usually a bubble, and there are people queueing at showflats. Apart from hedging into precious metals and commodities, he believes in particular, agriculture will boom in time to come.

11) How to buy Jim's funds?
There are 2 traded on the NYSE: Rogers Agriculture Index and Rogers Commodities Index.
Zero Cuisine Cauliflower Mash. 60 calories. Zero guilt. Limited time offer: Free shipping! http://www.zerocuisine.com
candy_chia
Investing Mentor
Posts: 1731
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2011 11:36 am

Re: The World Tomorrow and How Jim Rogers Sees It

Post by candy_chia »

Jim Rogers: The U.S. Faces Several 'Lost Decades'
October 16, 2012, By Jared Cummans

The period between 2000 and 2009 is often referred to as the "Lost Decade" for U.S. investing, as markets were barely able to scrape up any gains over the ten year stretch.

But as we have moved on, and markets have recovered from the recession, the fear of a further and possibly deeper recession still persists. Some point to Bernanke and the Fed's open-ended easing as our undoing, while others feel that our ever accumulating debts will eventually shock markets.

Expert analysts and investors around the world have been quick to give their two cents, and perhaps none have been more vocal or negative than Jim Rogers.

The legendary commodity investor has been down on the U.S. economy for quite some time as he feels that 2013 and 2014 will see markets slip into a deep recession.

Now, Mr. Rogers has taken his claims a step further by claiming that the "Lost Decade" was not a one time anomaly for America. Rogers feels that we will suffer several lost decades, as he drew the comparison between our economy and that of Japan; one that has been well documented for years and shows years of poor market performance and a sputtering economy.
GDP of Japan.png
GDP of Japan.png (33.07 KiB) Viewed 30461 times
"The idea that you prop up people who are bankrupt is what Japan did.

Japan had two lost decades, America will have a few lost decades
," said Rogers.


that kind of bearishness from a world-renown expert has some investors worrying, as if they weren't already on the edge of their seats. Luckily, Rogers has been very vocal about which investments he sees performing well in the coming years, allowing those who follow his claims to protect themselves from the possibility of another lost decade.

Agriculture and farmland are by far Mr. Rogers' favorite investments, and have been for some time.
farmland.png
farmland.png (100.95 KiB) Viewed 30461 times
Rogers has also stated that he likes both gold and silver, but for the time being he favors silver over its precious metal counterpart. Investors can play the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to follow both of these ideas.

Although, if we are truly headed for another few lost decades, placing money in the markets may be something you will avoid as an investor, especially with the unpredictable nature of today's economy.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/925801- ... ated&ifp=0
Post Reply