Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Mon Jun 04, 2012 12:08 pm

Can you imagine getting negative yield on a bond? Well, such an unthinkable thing just happened. It means that you get back less than your capital holding a bond to its maturity date!!! It means that the market is so pessimistic that if it loses a small portion of money, that this End Result is still better than Investing into stocks now and risk losing more.

In my opinion, buying bonds at New Historical High Prices is also risky, which is why I now have as much as 72% of my Wealth in Cash, and NOT invested.

Yields on German two-year notes fell below zero for the first time ever last week as investors fled riskier sovereign debt. Spanish bonds dropped for a fourth week, pushing the country’s 10-year yields above 6.5 percent -- nearing the 7 percent threshold which triggered the three earlier bailouts.

Yield on 10 year bonds for several countries also close to 1.5%, at historical low levels, or NEW Historical High Price for bonds, and these countries include U.S. , Germany, Netherlands, UK (United Kingdom) and Canada (1.62%). Yield on 10 year bond of Swiss bonds only 0.46%!!!

What's the next thing that might happen (not sure when it will happen though, next few months or next year)?

In my opinion, it'll be the shocking awakening that U.S. debt problems is no better than Spain and it might lead to a spike in yield on U.S. government bonds and a Crash in U.S. government bonds. Please note that most countries have about 1/3 to 1/2 of their Foreign Reserves in US$, so if this happens, it is going to be something Drastic...
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Mon Jun 04, 2012 12:25 pm

Some people are still confused about what exactly is Financial Freedom or they have a vaque idea what it means. Here it is:

Financial Freedom means you can stop actively working and still have enough money to maintain a comfortable lifestyle for you and your dependents. Cheers! I reached that 3 years ago, when I was age 39.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Tue Jun 05, 2012 10:12 am

One of my multi-millionaire sifus said to me:"Dennis, do you think the government want more people to learn Financial Knowledge to become financially free?" He commented:"the fact that they allow 100% financing for people to buy a Car (a depreciating asset that has no long term value) and now impose max 60% financing limit for a 2nd property, show you they rather people stuck as middle class, buying Liabilities instead of Assets...to be forever in the "Rat Race"...

I have to admit what he said seems to make some sense.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Singapore Family Sedan Matches Cost of a U.S. Home
By Wes Goodman - Jun 5, 2012 7:27 AM GMT+0800

Vinay Mathur gave up on buying a new car in Singapore as the cost of a permit rose to the highest in 17 years. He settled for a two-year-old BMW 3-series.

“By the time we began seriously to think of buying a car, license prices had shot up,” said Mathur, 42, referring to the so-called certificates of entitlement, which are auctioned by the city-state and used to control congestion.

At S$86,889 ($67,000) just for a permit, the total price of a Volkswagen Passat in Singapore is about the same as the median U.S. metropolitan home. A 25 percent jump in residents in seven years, coupled with the world’s highest proportion of millionaire households, has fueled a 10-fold surge in license prices over three years. The government said last week it will postpone plans to cut the number of permits available and slow traffic growth, responding to the outcry over soaring prices.

After the ruling People’s Action Party lost a by-election in the opposition-led Hougang district on May 26, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reiterated a pledge to change the way the party governs a population that opinion surveys show is most concerned with issues such as high living costs and an influx of foreign residents. The PAP remained in power last year with the smallest general election victory since independence in 1965.

“The COE system is well-intended in that it does limit the traffic to some extent and pollution, but it bumps up the price of even entry-level cars to a ridiculous level,” said Mathur, a senior executive who moved to Singapore from Mumbai with his wife and young son two-and-a-half years ago. Mathur said he was entitled to an interest-free, five-year loan of S$130,000 from his company, and didn’t want to spend more than that.

Car or House?

A new 2012 Passat sedan made by Volkswagen AG (VOW), the world’s second-largest carmaker, costs about $152,000 in Singapore, including the license, according to classified ads website SGCarMart.com. The median price of a U.S. metropolitan area home is $158,100, National Association of Realtors data show.

So-called open-category permit, which can be used to buy any type of vehicle, reached S$92,010 in April, the highest since the end of 1994 when a record of S$110,500 was reached. At the latest auction May 23, the licenses went for S$86,889, compared with S$8,501 three years ago. The permits give the right to own a car for 10 years. The next auction is tomorrow.

Besides having to bid for certificates at auctions that are held every two weeks, Singaporeans also pay registration fees and taxes that can amount to 150 percent of the market value of a vehicle, according to the Land Transport Authority website.

Delayed Cuts

In Singapore, an island of 248 square miles (642 square kilometers), the number of cars climbed to a record 603,723 at the end of 2011 from 405,354 a decade earlier. To limit congestion and pollution, the government had planned to reduce the growth of the vehicle pool from 1.5 percent annually to 0.5 percent starting in August.

Dennis Ng's comments: with total household of about 1.3 million owning 603,723 cars, it appears that 1 out of 2 families in Singapore own a car, which means even a typical middle class household owns a car. I'm probably one of the few multi-millionaires in Singapore that does NOT own a car.


That rate will instead be reduced to 1 percent in August, and then to 0.5 percent in February, the Land Transport Authority said last week on its website. Efforts to undo an oversupply of licenses in prior years will also be delayed for a year. The measures will increase the monthly supply of permits by 17 percent, or about 656, according to the authority.

“The government help might ease the pressure,” said Lynette Tan, a stocks analyst at DMG & Partners in Singapore. “I don’t think prices will plummet.”

Inflation Pressure

Transportation costs pushed Singapore’s inflation rate to 5.4 percent in April, the most this year, government figures show. The goverment said more than a week ago inflation will remain elevated in the next few months, and Prime Minister Lee said in his May Day speech that the No. 1 concern among union leaders is the cost of living.

“We must make a special effort for the low-wage workers, because they are the ones most affected by competition, by inflation,” according to a text of the speech. “We will continue to monitor inflation very closely to see when something more needs to be done, we will be ready to act.”

In the past year, Lee’s government has also introduced stricter immigration policies, imposed higher taxes on property purchases for foreigners and cut ministerial pay. Worker income in the island-state has risen 12 percent in five years after accounting for inflation, Lee said.

More than a third of the 5.2 million-population is made up of foreigners and expatriate permanent residents. Singapore’s unemployment rate averaged 2 percent last year, a 14-year low. Singapore was ranked as the Asian city with the best quality of life, according to a Mercer report in November.

Dennis Ng's comments: sometimes in MRT or some other public places, I find myself, a Singaporean to be the "Minority", becos when I look around, I see more foreigners than Singaporeans.

Confident Buyers

Job security has made people more willing to buy cars, helping drive prices higher, said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB Research Pte in Singapore.

“There’s a certain degree of speculation,” Song said. “Due to the COE, you can make money by buying a car and selling it one year later. In most other countries, we’d say a car is a depreciating asset.”

Song said he takes trains and buses, and “whoever wants to drive and pay through the nose, go ahead.”

Michael Gomez, who is 30 and works in Singapore’s banking district, said his permit has appreciated so much that he’s planning to sell it and downgrade to a cheaper car.

Gomez bought a 2009 BMW a year ago for S$145,000. The car is now worth about S$135,000, he said.

“The actual depreciation on the car should be about S$20,000, but I’ve only lost 10 grand” because of the appreciation of the permit, he said. “I’m getting a good price. If I downgrade, then I will save money.”

Dennis Ng's comments: losing S$10,000 to S$20,000 per year on Depreciation, it means you're getting poorer by that amount every year, if you save less than S$20,000 a year, it means that on a Net basis, you are getting poorer and poorer and yet people wonder why they don't seem to have enough money to retire by age 60 and need to be "forced" to work in jobs they don't like till a much older age. Becos of choosing not to have a car in the last 19 years, I'm at least S$700,000 richer than a person who owns a car, or account for about 1/4 of my current wealth.

The government should amend the permit system because it favors the rich, Chee Soon Juan, head of the opposition Singapore Democratic Party, said before last week’s announcement.

Dennis Ng's comments: yes, to the Ultra-Rich, who does NOT blink an eye "crashing" a S$1.8 million Ferrari, what is S$100,000 or even S$200,000 COE? Nothing, they will just pay whatever the COE is, even if it goes to S$1 million, they would pay. But COE are also paid by businesses, for a business that have alot of vehicles, the price of COE can add up to a significant cost of their operations...and if costs go up, they might have to pass down the increased costs to consumers in the form of higher prices (thereby stoking inflation rate up further).

Singapore’s millionaire households expanded 14 percent last year, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group published May 31. Singapore’s proportion of millionaire households was 17 percent, the highest in the world, followed by Qatar and Kuwait, the study showed.

“You’re pitting the rich against the poor, and guess who wins?” Chee said in an interview. “People with needs, and the guy who runs a small family business, are pitted against this wealthy family that’s buying a third car for the teenage son because he had just done well in his exams.”

Dennis Ng's comments: as I commented before, in 10 years' time, Singapore is likely to become the Heaven for the Rich, attracting more and more rich people here, (famous Rich staying in Singapore include Jim Rogers, Jet Li, Gong Li, and co-founder of facebook, just to name a few)... and it is likely to become Hell for the Poor. (The lowest income jobs are still paying S$800 to S$1,000 a month, same rate as 20 years ago!!!). The middle class will feel an increasing squeeze on them, being the sandwiched class, having too high an income to qualify for subsidies and not having high enough income to buy condo and car and retire at age 60.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wes Goodman in Singapore at wgoodman@bloomberg.net
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Retropbz » Tue Jun 05, 2012 11:11 am

Hi Everyone,

Just to share with all of you that I had received a email from SHAREINVESTOR that there is a promotion offer if you sign up for the 12 MONTHS.

FUNDAMENTAL = 12% OFF
STANDARD = 8% OFF
EXTRA = 8% OFF
STATION =8% OFF


This offer valid till 5th june - 25th june 2012.

Wonderful Day to Everyone :D
Retropbz
Wonderful Day to Everyone :D
Retropbz
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Tue Jun 05, 2012 11:29 am

Hi Retropbz,

thanks for sharing.

For those not sure which to sign up, in my opinion, "Standard" membership is sufficient. I'm a standard member, have chart up to 20 years, and all the Fundamental data including annual reports (you can download in your computer) up to 5 years. Insider Trades information, etc, etc.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Retropbz wrote:Hi Everyone,

Just to share with all of you that I had received a email from SHAREINVESTOR that there is a promotion offer if you sign up for the 12 MONTHS.

FUNDAMENTAL = 12% OFF
STANDARD = 8% OFF
EXTRA = 8% OFF
STATION =8% OFF


This offer valid till 5th june - 25th june 2012.

Wonderful Day to Everyone :D
Retropbz
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Retropbz » Tue Jun 05, 2012 2:50 pm

Hi Dennis SIFU,

Sharing and giving are the best things in this world which I learning from you. I am sure that to help others is also to help yourself to a better and happier life when they benefit from you.

Wonderful Day to Everyone :D
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Tue Jun 05, 2012 3:00 pm

Retropbz wrote:Hi Dennis SIFU,

Sharing and giving are the best things in this world which I learning from you. I am sure that to help others is also to help yourself to a better and happier life when they benefit from you.

Wonderful Day to Everyone :D


great to hear that.

Personally, I discover that serving others, helping others and Giving in all forms, gives me tremendous fulfillment and happiness, which is why I look forward to doing more and more of it.

Another thing that gives me tremendous joy is to see and witness the growth and development of people. This Sat, for the first time, the first half of the How to Save and Accumulate One Million Dollars Seminar would be conducted by one of my seminar graduates, (groomed to be one of the trainers), Adrian Chua. Nowadays, the weekly Path to Financial Freedom are already conducted by ONLY my seminar graduates...

My next plan is to reach out to corporates (companies) so that we can reach out to educate more people, and I can't do this alone, I need a group of dedicated Trainers to make this a reality.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:29 pm

Great News! My book "What Your School Never Taught You About Money" has been selected by Samsung for its "Learning Hub" and will be launched in 15 countries world-wide! So my dream of my book going International is coming true!

Once again, it shows to you again that CBA really works! And you don't even need to now How, the How will be unveiled by the Universe...frankly, I never thought that Samsung will be the one helping my book go international!

Looks like my dream of helping to educate one million people to reach one million dollars will come true, just a matter of time!

Samsung is launching its own education service called ‘Learning Hub’, which it says will provide 6,000 textbooks and videos from 30 education providers across the world.

The Korean mobile giant intends to introduce a range of interactive features that assist learning on its Galaxy Tab 10.1 and Galaxy Tab 8.9 tablets initially, including automatic scoring, note-taking abilities and learning management options, facilitating a true self-guided learning environment. The Learning Hub will be open to people of all ages, from elementary school students to adults of all ages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-ov4jdMc_Q
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Jasper » Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:40 pm

Wow !!! Congrats!
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:42 pm

Jasper wrote:Wow !!! Congrats!


thanks. When they first contacted me, I was thinking is it a joke or not. haha, as I have not heard of the Learning Hub by Samsung.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Waterman » Tue Jun 05, 2012 7:41 pm

Awesome! Congrats!!!

Dennis Ng wrote:
Jasper wrote:Wow !!! Congrats!


thanks. When they first contacted me, I was thinking is it a joke or not. haha, as I have not heard of the Learning Hub by Samsung.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Wed Jun 06, 2012 8:27 am

As I said months ago, watch out for Spain, it would likely be the next one to get into trouble after Greece. Unfortunately, it seems that I'm right on this.

Europe needs to act fast on Spain's "financing problems" before huge capital flight out of Spain pushes it into the abyss.

Cheers!

Dennis Ng

Spain makes plea for EU aid for troubled banks

Spain has admitted for the first time that it can no longer raise money on the global markets or roll over its sovereign bonds, threatening to set off a dangerous escalation of Europe's debt crisis.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

9:40PM BST 05 Jun 2012

Premier Mariano Rajoy said the country is "in an extremely difficult situation" and called on Europe to stand by the mutual obligations of euro membership. "Europe must say where it is going and show that the euro is an irreversible project that is not in danger, that helps nations in difficulty," he told Spain's senate.

Treasury minister Cristobal Montoro confessed that Spain can no longer raise money. "The market is no longer open. The risk premium is telling us that Spain as a state has a problem accessing the market when we need to refinance our debt."


Despite the pleas, Spain's leaders are holding out against a formal EU-IMF rescue along the lines of loan packages for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, calling instead for EU action to recapitalise Spanish banks.

"The European instistutions must open up and help us facilitate bank recapitalisations," said Mr Montoro. This would avoid stigma and shift Spain's vast contingent liabilities onto the EU.

In words that sent shivers through chancelleries across Europe, he said that Spain's economy is too big for the EU bail-out machinery. "Technically, we can't really be rescued," he said.


A key official from the G7 group said Spain was testing Europe's patience to breaking point. "The Spanish are too proud to be rescued. It is fatal arrogance," he said.

Central bank governors and finance ministers from the G7 grappled with the intractable problem in a teleconference call but offered no clear away out of the impasse. The US Treasury said they had discussed "progress towards financial and fiscal union in Europe".

There is deep concern that capital flight from Spain will set off a broader brushfire. The country's lenders lost €66bn (£53bn) in deposits in March even before the Greek elections plunged Europe back into chaos.

US President Barack Obama is exasperated by Europe's failure to mobilise its own vast resources to stop contagion, a feeling shared in Beijing and Tokyo. "The crisis in Europe's economy has cast a shadow on our own," he said.

French foreign minister Laurent Fabius lashed out at the Americans, saying the US itself is to blame. "The crisis did not start in Europe. Lehman Brothers was not a European bank. We should not shift responsibility," he said.

There was fresh evidence on Tuesday that Europe's austerity policies are pushing the region deeper into slump. Retail sales dropped 2.5pc in April from a year earlier, crashing 9.6pc in Spain and 9.3pc in Portugal. The Markit PMI services index for the eurozone fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in May. "The economy is contracting at the fastest pace for around three years," said Markit's Chris Williamson.

Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, called for a fresh blast of stimulus from the European Central Bank at its meeting on Tuesday. "There is clearly room for another interest rate cut," she said.

European diplomats say Spain is playing a high-stakes game of brinkmanship with Germany, betting that Chancellor Angela Merkel will blink before the crisis spins out of control.

The hope is that Germany will let the European Stability Fund recapitalise banks directly, and give the ECB a green light for renewed bond purchases to cap yields.
"Europe needs fiscal integration, with a fiscal authority, a banking union with eurobonds, with a banking supervisor and a European bank deposit guarantee fund," said Mr Rajoy.

It is unclear whether Mrs Merkel will acceed to any such demands. She has agreed to explore moves towards an EU banking supervisor in the "medium-run", though the European Banking Authority already exists.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble told Handelsblatt that a joint banking nexus might be possible in the future but only once EU states have fused sovereignty, a move with revolutionary implications. "Before we can talk about joint debt management, we must have a real fiscal union," he said.

Brussels and the EU's French-led Latin bloc are pushing hard for a "banking union" and use of the ESF for bank rescues, but they are powerless without German backing.

Germany's association of savings banks said any move towards cross-border guarantees would "lead to a spreading of risks to the detriment of German financial institutions". Christian Democrat leaders in the Bundestag said EU recapitalisation of Spanish banks was out of the question.

The EU will on Wednesday introduce its long-delayed proposals to shield taxpayers from the costs of future bank failures. The so-called "bail-in" plans will not come into force until 2018 and have no relevance to the immediate crisis.

Mr Montoro said the sums needed for Spain's banks are "not astronomic" and would be less than the €40bn suggested by Santander chief Emilio Botín. "The men in black are not going to come to Spain," he joked.

Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank said the idea that Spain's mutli-layered problems could be solved with €40bn was "nonsense". Economists from RBS say Spain will need between €370bn and €450bn once any rescue begins since any half-measures would lead to investor flight by junior creditors fearing subordination.

Meanwhile, Bankia, Spain's fourth-largest bank, could get less than the €19bn in aid it has asked for
, Reuters reported on Tuesday night. The amount needed for the rescue may have been overestimated and Bankia may end up getting less bailout money, Reuters cited two sources as saying.
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Fri Jun 08, 2012 1:54 pm

Dennis Ng wrote:Movie: Too Big to Fail

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BxZz4-j ... edit?pli=1


Why are all these things going on? The Big banks took big risks, lost money and the government then went ahead to pour money in to rescue them...

Why? Becos as we suspect, the World (including many governments) are actually being controlled by the Ultra Rich.

So after the year 2008 Financial Crisis, now the Power and Wealth is concentrated in even fewer hands. Today, the largest 10 banks in U.S. account for 77% of all the assets of ALL the banks in U.S.

Listen to Gerald Celente:

Gerald Celente - Capital Account - 15 May 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zMORYlQwY4
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:46 pm

Lianhe Zao Bao asked my comments on what Robert Kiyosaki said at the recent National Achievers' Congress, and the article is published today 8 Jun 2012:

http://www.zaobao.com.sg/fk/fk120608_005.shtml


罗伯特预言全球经济4年后崩溃论能当真?
(2012-06-08)联合早报

《富爸爸穷爸爸》作家罗伯特•清崎预言全球经济将在四年后崩溃,引起争议。(取自互联网)
● 黄少伟 - 私人的经济


  《富爸爸穷爸爸》作家罗伯特•清崎在马来西亚的一场投资讲座中预言全球经济将在4年后崩溃,本地财务规划师吴加万提出他的看法。
黄少伟/报道

  《富爸爸穷爸爸》美籍日裔畅销书作家罗伯特•清崎(Robert Kiyosaki)日前在马来西亚的一场投资讲座中预言全球经济将在4年后崩溃。他说,许多国家目前债台高筑,根本无力偿还,大家都在靠中国带动经济增长。

黄金和银抗膨胀,不是投资工具
   罗伯特指出,一旦中国停止进口,各国必受到冲击。此外,欧美国家目前都是靠印刷钞票来支撑经济,导致金钱贬值,因此他在讲座中提出他不赞成存钱,并以他 的经验为例,说明他自己的财富都是来自房地产、金和银的投资。“2000年的金价为每安士270至280美元,现在每安士为1600美元,美元跌得太快, 我为什还要存钱?”

  针对罗伯特的言论,本地财务规划师吴加万同意罗伯特的看法,认为美国和欧洲的债务的确过多,不过他质疑这是否真的会 造成全球经济崩溃。吴加万认为,世事无绝对,投资的人是看情况投资,随机应变。“只有在滞胀(stagflation)的情况下,也就是经济停滞不前、高 通货膨胀、货币贬值,投资房地产、金和银的确是不错的投资。黄金和银的作用是抗膨胀,不是一个投资工具。”

富人靠资本利润发财,不靠房租赚钱
   吴加万指出,储蓄是财富的根源,大家需要用储蓄的钱来进行投资,因此没有存钱就不能投资。此外他也提醒读者罗伯特是美国人,所建议的投资策略可能不适合 应用在本地。他说:“本地房地产价格飙到这么高,已经没有上涨的空间。此外政府也将在明年兴建许多房屋,供应会增加,因此我不认为应该现在进场买房地 产。”他说,买房地产不是稳赚,美国的房价在过去5年一直下跌,已经有很多美国人破产了。

 罗伯特曾经在书中写道,不管经济如何,他都大量投资房地产,目的在赚取房租,以取得现金流动。对此吴加万质疑:“新加坡人把房子出租后,还需要缴付高额 房贷,所剩无几,要靠这样致富根本不可能。我周围的有钱人都是靠资本利润发财的,因此我不同意罗伯特的‘现金流动’论。”

  面对世界经济的动荡局势,投资者该如何应对?吴加万建议他们不妨考虑持有新加坡、瑞士、加拿大、澳大利亚和中国的货币,“因为这些国家都没有类似欧美的债务问题,货币相当稳定,是个不错的投资。”至于股票、债券或者房地产,吴加万则说应尽量避免接触。
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng
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Re: Frank Comments by Dennis Ng on various Topics

Postby Dennis Ng » Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:55 pm

VincentLim wrote:This might be the chance for us to make millions soon. :lol: Let's standby.


yes, a Crisis is a very Rare Opportunity for Great Wealth Transfer to take place. For those who are prepared, it is a Great Opportunity, for those not prepared, it is a Great Crisis.

做好准备,把握危中之机 我报 2012 年6月6日 吴加万

上个星期五,美国股市重挫2%, 道琼斯指数下跌274.88 点 (2.22%), 闭市12,118.57点。欧洲西班牙的10年政府债券利率飙升,超过6.5%。很多投资人士面对股市的波动,心情也不禁跟着股市的波动而七上八下,忐忑不安。今天,就让我与您分享我对全球经济与股市展望的看法与分析。

美国

美国五月创造的新工作只达到69,000份,失业率不跌反升至 8.2% 。 美国每个月需要创造至少150,000份工作机会才能减低失业率0.1% 。美国的经济70% 靠国内消费。因此,如果美国经济要复苏,失业率必须下降至较为健康的水平。美国的平均失业率为5.8%。因此,如果要将失业率降到5.8%, 那么美国必须连续24个月创造至少150,000份工作机会。

美国在过去三年,为了刺激美国经济复苏,已经进行两次的“量化宽松”(印钞票),印了超过US$2.3 trillion, 但是失业率只下跌了1.8% 。

美国的债务顶限去年从US$14.3 trillion增加到US$16.4 trillion。但是,美国目前的债务已经达到US$15.75 trillion,可用余额是US$650 million。因此,就算美国进行第三次量化宽松,最多为US$650 million。如果之前“印钞票”印了US$2.3 trillion 都无法让美国经济复苏,您认为多印US$650 million会有效吗?

因此,美国的经济在2013年恐怕会无法强力复苏,而如果美国经济不好,美国企业的盈利也难有出色的表现,而美国股市与股价也可能下跌而不是上升。

2012 年6月1日美国道琼斯指数闭市12,118.57点,跌破了200天移动平均线的12,179。股市一个星期交易5天,200 天等于40个星期的交易,或大约9个月的股市交易平均价格。因此,200天移动平均线可以让我们大约知道股市的整体趋势到底是上,或下。当股市跌破200天移动平均线,那么可能显示股市已呈下跌的趋势。美国道琼斯指数必须冲破12,600 点,不然,整体趋势是下不是上。

欧洲

希腊再次传来坏消息。因为无法有多数议席组织政府,希腊必须在6 月17日再次大选投票。而如果倾向“不要节约”的政党获得政权的话,可能会因此违反欧盟为拯救希腊所定下的条款,而希腊可能被迫脱离欧元区。因为,在拯救配套下,希腊人民必须面对“缩紧腰带”,包括退休金减低,各种福利减低,薪水减低,但生活费高涨的窘境,因此,民间哀怨四起,可能导致政权大变天。但是,如果希腊脱离欧元区,那么可能出现的情况蛇希腊银行可能无法得到相关的融资而陷入危机。希腊的债券的价值也会大幅度下跌。很多欧洲各国的银行,包括意大利,西班牙,法国等等的银行都拥有大笔的希腊债券。因此,如果希腊债券价格暴跌,这些银行也会蒙受巨额的亏损,也可能导致他们的资金不足。如果,届时造成对一些较弱的银行的信心大跌,存户将钱从这些弱的银行提出,可能会引发更多银行倒闭,造成骨牌效应。如果意大利,法国,西班牙的一些银行倒闭,或需要援助,那么这会是雪上加霜,造成这些国家的政府需要负更多债务,加重欧盟的债务危机。

过去半年,欧洲中央银行总共印了超过1.1 trillion欧元,以1%低利率贷款给欧洲各大银行,以帮助他们。设想,欧洲银行以1% 低利率向欧洲中央银行借款,然后投资买例如西班牙10年的政府债券利率6%,白白赚了5%。 这分明是欧洲中央银行“派钱”给欧洲银行花。

问题是欧洲中央银行还可以有多少钱可以“派”? 如果派钱,到底谁出最多钱?当然是“欧洲老大德国”。 因此,德国表态他们不赞成发行欧盟债券,因为,一发行欧盟债券,等于德国在负担欧洲弱国例如希腊的债务。德国政府也有难处,该如何让德国人甘愿用德国人辛勤工作赚来的钱去帮助比较“懒散”的西班牙人,或不愿缴税的希腊人。

当初欧洲中央银行的 1.1 trillion欧元的派钱行动虽然暂时减缓了欧洲的恶劣局势,但那只象止痛药,药力过后,旧病又复发。西班牙的10年政府债券从 4.5% 有上升到目前的大约6.5%。 而如果利率超过6%,西班牙的收入可能无法偿付债务的利息。因此,西班牙很可能会步希腊的后尘,陷入债务危机。而意大利的10年债券利率也大约5.8%,紧跟在后。如果西班牙与意大利都陷入债务危机,那么他们的债务加起来为 3 trillion euros,等于希腊债务的10倍!

因此,如果西班牙与意大利陷入债务危机,那么IMF,欧洲中央银行加起来的钱也不够拯救这两个国家,而欧盟也很可能会面临瓦解的命运。

中国
中国可以救欧洲吗?中国可以救美国吗?我想,中国领导人已经几个月前表态,他们无法做到,中国如果能不出现问题,那就是中国对全球最大的帮助。这几个月下来,很明显的,连中国的经济增长也开始缓慢下来。 中国政府会设法刺激经济。但是,目前,中国的国内消费只占中国经济的30%,因此,如果美国与欧洲各占全球经济24%的两大经济体经济不景气,那么中国的经济要“保八”增长8% 可能性是低的。

欧洲的平均失业率为11%,而欧洲经济已经开始不景气了。因此,中国对欧洲的出口也会面临下跌的压力。

展望2013 年,全球经济应该会比2012年差,而我已经再三警告可能出现的全球金融危机可能在2012年下半年或2013 年来临。我早有准备, 准备了应付6 个月开销的储备金。另外,我目前72%的财富为现金,作为“机会资本”。当金融危机来时,当股市大跌时,便是我动用机会资本的时候了。希望您也做好相关的准备。

作者拥有多年的银行工作经验,在 2003 年创办房贷咨询网站,www.HousingLoanSG.com , 2009 年创办了www.MasterYourFinance.com
Cheers!

Dennis Ng - When You Master Your Finances, You Master Your Destiny

Note: I'm just sharing my personal comments, not giving you investment advice nor stock investment tips.
Dennis Ng
Site Admin
 
Posts: 9781
Joined: Tue Nov 29, 2005 7:16 am
Location: Singapore

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